Market Analysis – How many yards will the Federal Reserve announce to downgrade its seats early this morning? Will this be a watershed in the currency circle?
This week on the eve of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the entire market has started a small rise. Both mainstream coins and altcoins have increased by 5-10%. The increase of BTC is still in the previous period, which is very strong. BTC Dominance also hit a new high today to 58.51 %, which is the highest level since April 2021. In comparison, the ETH/BTC exchange rate fell as we had expected, and even hit a new low since April 2021, which means that the altcoin market is really weak. It also means that after the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, BTC will get more The attention of institutions and the deeper connection with the overall economy and stock market have also further compressed the altcoin market.
The price trend of BTC is currently suppressed by the downward trend line formed since July, and is also at a pressure position of $61,000. The short-term is an opportunity for short-term profits and losses to be relatively high, but considering that the price will be high at 2 o'clock in the morning tonight There will be a U.S. FOMC interest rate decision-making meeting, which will decide whether to cut interest rates by 1 or 2 points. The volatility is expected to be very high. The whole world is watching this decision closely, so it is recommended to wait and see empty-handed. The investment team of GT Radar will also Let’s reduce some positions first. The following will help users integrate various views on interest rate decisions.
U.S. FOMC interest rate decision
According to data from FedWatch, last week the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and other media quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting that a two-digit interest rate cut was listed as one of the options for the Fed to consider the scale of interest rate cuts, and policymakers did not clearly refute this. Market expectations reversed from last week. Current data suggests there is more than a 60% chance of a 2-yard rate cut, compared with only around 30% a week ago.
However, overall, the market still does not reach a certain level of consensus on the extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which will lead to substantial fluctuations after the interest rate decision is announced. There are various opinions in the market at this stage, and it is difficult to judge whether to cut interest rates by 2 points or 1. The code is more beneficial to the short-term trend of risky assets such as Bitcoin.
Support interest rate cut 1 yard point of view
Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank warned that the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates by 2 percentage points because economic data does not fully illustrate the consequences of a 2-point rate cut at the upcoming meeting. The risk of such an aggressive rate cut is too high and could even lead to a rise in unemployment in September.
On the other hand, Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Research, also said that the market’s expectations for the Fed’s rate cut appear to be too optimistic because inflation still risks rising.
Expectations for a 2-digit rate cut rise
Morgan Stanley believes the Fed may be leaning toward a 2-cent rate cut as the bond market signals that monetary policy has lagged behind: If interest rates remain high for an extended period of time, it risks damaging the economy.
The head of interest rate strategy at Societe Generale also warned that the market is ready for a 2-digit interest rate cut, and commodity trading advisor CTA's long position in the bond market has accumulated to a three-year high. If the Fed's interest rate cut is smaller, , and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that it will adopt a gradual approach to interest rate cuts, the market may face greater stop-loss selling pressure.
Meanwhile, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of hedge fund Sky Bridge, said in an interview this week that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50 basis points tonight. And he predicted that Bitcoin is expected to hit a record high before the end of the year, reaching $100,000, driven by the next series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and clarity on cryptocurrency regulation.
Potential investment opportunities
During this period of sideways trading, SUI performed quite strongly. Relative to the US dollar, it broke beyond the downward trend line from May 20 to the present, and emerged from a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern. The trading volume also showed the buying trend after SUI bottomed out. The disk is quite powerful.
More importantly, SUI is one of the few smart contract public chain currencies that can outperform Bitcoin in the past three months.
In addition, there has been a lot of good news about the development of the Sui ecosystem in the past period. For example, physical game console SuiPlay0x1, network-free transaction technology, and cooperation and integration with stablecoin issuer Circle, etc. On the other hand, according to data from DeFiLlama, the performance of the total locked asset value of the Sui ecosystem in the past month is also quite good compared with other competitors.
In addition to the SUI token itself, the ecosystem’s projects and meme coins (such as BLUB) are also worthy of attention.
Binance Copying Analysis GTRadar – BULL
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The yields of "GTRadar - BULL", "GTRadar - Balance" and "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain OKX" in the past 7 days are -5.63%, -1.62% and -2.74% respectively, and the yields in the past 30 days are - 7.93%, -8.1% and -10.56%.
Currently, "GTRadar - BULL" holds a net long position of 30%, mainly in BTC.
Currently, "GTRadar - Balanced" holds a net long position of about 20%, mainly in XRP and BTC.
Currently, "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain" holds a net short position of about 5%, mainly ETH.
The long-term returns of a follower who often changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
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The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
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