Fed rate decision preview:

There is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bp in its first interest rate decision.
50BP means pricing risk of recession reality;
In terms of forward guidance after the interest rate decision, Powell is unlikely to preset the path for subsequent rate cuts. The only information the market can get from Powell's mouth is the live demonstration of Tai Chi.

Risk Pricing Points:
1. The Fed cuts interest rates for only one reason: liquidity is drying up, regardless of whether the tightening cycle is about to burst or the Fed can no longer withstand it;
The key point of liquidity is that the bond market diverts liquidity from the stock market, and it is bound to divert liquidity, it is just a matter of proportion.
As long as there is diversion, it will correspond to a revaluation of the market value of U.S. stocks, which will have a related impact on the Big Pie ETF.
U.S. Treasuries are the anchor of the U.S. dollar and their strategic importance is far higher than that of U.S. stocks.

2. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates beyond expectations.
This will lead to indiscriminate selling pressure on all derivative positions by yen arbitrage funds, which means disordered price trends of the correlations between major asset classes that novice investors cannot understand: for example, the US dollar index, US stocks, and gold have shown consistent price trends.
The larger the scale of arbitrage funds, the more severe the instantaneous selling pressure; for example, the Japanese stock and bond circuit breakers on Black Monday.

3. The risk is highest at this early stage, especially if the real economy of the U.S. stock market experiences a recession.
Because of this risk, big funds will choose to wait and see, waiting for the risk to be confirmed. For example, Buffett's cash reserves have reached a record high. Of course, Buffett is not always right, but he has never missed such a big event, and he has an information advantage that ordinary investors cannot reach.
Black swan is not something that can be predicted by linear financial data. It is often a mutation after a long period of gestation.

4. Look from another dimension:
If economic development is to follow basic economic laws, it is Tao;
The monetary authority's macroeconomic policies regulate the economy.
Then the reversal of the cycle is a sign that the "technique" of the previous cycle has been exhausted, and the synchronous reversal of fundamentals is the synchronization of the "Tao".
Man can conquer nature at this moment, the cycle of nature is eternal.