Decisive battle with FOMC? The fourth quarter market has begun, when will the alt season start?
The FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve tomorrow night is very critical;
The probability of the current bond market trading out is 63% for a 50 basis point rate cut and 37% for a 25 basis point rate cut;
The dot plot is also very important, suggesting the number of rate cuts in the fourth quarter;
According to my speculation, the cumulative rate cuts this year should be 100-125 basis points;
After the US rate cut, the central banks of Europe, Britain, Canada, and China will follow suit and increase their efforts to cut interest rates; the rate cut trend has opened, and the market has gradually entered a loose state;
Don't be afraid of the so-called potential crisis brought about by the 50 basis point rate cut mentioned by many analysts. At present, the US economy is stable, and the EPS outlook of SP500 is stable and rising;
Countermeasures:
1. If Powell is a "brave man" and cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, the probability of a soft landing will increase greatly, and risky assets such as US stocks and $BTC can be optimistic; you can go long in all aspects! The alt season will officially start in October!
2. If Powell is still timid and cuts by 25 basis points, and looks at the data rearview mirror, then the US stock market and BTC will still have a lot of trouble, and the seasonal correction law will take effect again. We can only wait until November and trade the Santa rally market.
