Hi guys, this post may be long but I want to share our views and perspectives on why price moves strongly in both directions after major macro news is released.
First, the biggest reason is that we inherently don't have enough knowledge to know whether it's good in the medium term or the short term when we receive information about the macro.
For example: On September 11, CPI below 2.9% is already very good, then 2.8% is also good, 2.7% is also good and 2.6% is even better. If the CPI result on September 11 was announced as 2.7%, then that would be good for the market.
Back to the Fed interest rate meeting on September 19. As I write this, there are 39 hours and 25 minutes left.
So, we see two numbers published:
- Current interest rate is: 5.5%, forecast to decrease by 0.25% to 5.25%.
- Experts and analysis organizations: 0.25% and 0.5% both have a 50% ratio.
Now I’ll show you how you’re almost all doing it wrong and being led by the bookies. The macro for every country, especially the US, is set at least quarterly in advance. So whether it’s a 0.25% or 0.5% cut on September 19, it’s good for speculative assets like stocks and crypto. There aren’t too many negative comments or articles like: “Interest rates are down, buy coins,” or “DCA is there, go play gold, the economy is in recession, where will the money come from to pump,” and many other tones.
When I wrote this article, I also had my own medium-term data for the next week. This data shows that whether the interest rate is announced at 0.5% or 0.25%, it will still be almost correct. Let me say, BTC will soon be over 60k.
This means that the fish have prepared a long-term plan with very deep preparations, but when the news comes out, they will make some slight changes to eliminate the analysts. For example: Analyze that 0.25% will have this or that result. But when the news comes out, if there is a very large selling volume, or the coin is transferred to the exchange, or there is a sell or long action from the big hands, then you will cancel the previously calculated view.
You may notice that my personal articles or conclusions are almost unaffected by negative comments and are very difficult to be fooled by news. I am only flexible within a small frame to optimize profits.
Views BTC above 60k, 70k is not buying spot in 2024. New coin not buying within 3 months.
What does this mean? There are big views that I have to adhere to, but need to be flexible in small sections, also known as waves in waves.
Many people ask where we find the time to analyze so much? Here is the answer:
For example, interest rates are announced once every 1-2 months, which means that on average there are about 10 rounds a year. I analyzed 10 rounds and if the results are good for more than 7 rounds, each round the big hands will change the price driving pattern differently but there will be some major core signs. Therefore, if you want to change, you have to start by practicing and packaging. To practice 10 interest rate news, you need a year and do not know exactly how many times.
---
