Gunfire near former US President Donald Trump's golf course has raised security concerns and impacted 2024 US election odds on prediction markets.
A security alert was raised on September 17 after shots were fired near former President Donald Trump at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. The incident comes as the 2024 US presidential election approaches, with Trumpâs odds on online prediction markets like Polymarket constantly fluctuating.
The former president is safe, according to a statement from Trump's 2024 campaign. The Secret Service confirmed the incident occurred around 2:00 p.m. EST and the golf course was placed on lockdown shortly afterward.
While the motive for the shooting remains unclear, the former presidentâs son, Donald Trump Jr., said an AK-47 was recovered at the scene. The incident is under investigation by authorities.
Assassination Plot in Butler, Pennsylvania and Market Reaction
The attempted assassination of Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, had a significant impact on his campaign and the prediction market. On Polymarket, Trumpâs odds of winning the 2024 presidential election skyrocketed after the incident. Meanwhile, his associated cryptocurrency MAGA (TRUMP) also surged 52%, while Bitcoin hit $64,671 on July 15.
âHistory shows that assassination attempts often lead to increased support for candidates,â said Austin Campbell, founder of Zero Knowledge Consulting, suggesting that the incident bolstered Trumpâs political standing and fueled a rally in the cryptocurrency market.
However, Trump's advantage on Polymarket has narrowed after the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris. His odds of winning have dropped by 3%, leaving the gap between the two candidates almost even.
Trumpâs odds peaked shortly after the Butler incident, when President Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee. But as the November election approaches, the gap between Trump and Harris has narrowed significantly, suggesting a tight race for the White House in 2024.
