[Will the Fed's rate cut lead to a rise or fall in the stock market?] It is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on Wednesday. However, as the central bank eases monetary policy, it remains unknown how the stock market will react. Whether investors will take Wednesday's rate cut in stride will depend on what message the Fed sends about the economy and the labor market.

Some historical experience can be learned: For the market, the reasons for the Fed's rate cut are far more important than the simple fact that borrowing costs have fallen.

Since the mid-1980s, the Federal Reserve has implemented 10 rounds of rate cuts. Of these 10 rate cut cycles, four rate cut cycles were associated with economic recessions, and six rate cut cycles were not associated with economic recessions. When the Federal Reserve succeeds in preventing a recession, the stock market tends to rise. When the Federal Reserve fails to prevent a recession, the stock market tends to fall. Whether this round of rate cuts will end up being a growth scare or a recession event is the main question. According to the median, in the rate cut cycle associated with the recession, the S&P 500 fell 10% in the first six months.

The magnitude of the Fed's rate cut on Wednesday could still have a big impact on investors' views on the economy and could set the tone for market moves for the rest of the year.

Investors are now looking for more guidance, in part because the latest U.S. economic data was somewhat ambiguous. The Labor Department's report showed that hiring has slowed while more people are entering the labor market, but layoffs haven't really picked up, at least not yet. Inflation, meanwhile, has receded. But the latest data released last week suggested that key prices such as rents and housing costs remain somewhat sticky.

Investor confidence in the economy has driven U.S. stocks higher in 2024, but that confidence has been shaken recently. Concerns that unemployment could snowball have gripped stocks and partly triggered the sell-off in August and September.

That uncertainty could cause stocks to fall in the initial period after a rate cut, regardless of what the Fed does, according to a team of strategists at Deutsche Bank. As of Friday morning, whatever the Fed chooses is likely to shock the market with the largest margin in 15 years.