The BTC rate went below the volume level of $59,335, fulfilling our forecast of a reversal on September 15-17.
We have been writing about this vision since last Tuesday, September 10. In fact, the high was set ahead of schedule, on September 13, at $60,625, and the price has not quite reached the level of $61,231, which we expected as the maximum. BUT there are still today and tomorrow to try to grow, at least in the format of a short squeeze. Today, the DeMark trend reversal indicator shows a short signal, confirming that the high set on September 16-17 should become the high for the next week or so.
This logic fits into the waveform shown on the chart. And while the price is below $59,335, a decrease in the ABC structure is a priority. We are in no hurry to make its waveform yet.
On the four-hour TF, the price went under EMA 200 today and is currently consolidating under this resistance. Also, more importantly, the price for yesterday and today fell under EMA 50 and 200 of the daily TF. Which are located near the volume level of $59,335.
We now consider the volume level of $56,361 to be the optimal target for the correction that has begun in case of continued growth after it. The Fibonacci level of 0.5 from the low of September 6 to the high of September 13 passes next to it. A fall below is undesirable for the uptrend, consolidation below the volume level of $55,059 is already a traditional signal of a probable trend break.
The BTC chart also has an alternative (non-priority for us) variant, in which wave 1 lasted from September 6 to 9. And its high is $58,088. Then on September 13, at $60,625, only the high of wave 3 was set, not wave 5. And now the fourth corrective wave is developing. This variant of the wave pattern is possible, but we consider it erroneous due to the reversal signal on the candlestick structure of the daily TF. At the same time, on this downward trend, the price will most likely go below $58,088. Which invalidates the alternative variant. Because according to the classical Elliott wave theory, the low of wave 4 cannot be lower than the high of wave 1.
The price can work out an alternative scenario only if the short structure of candles on the daily TF is broken. This requires the expressive power of buyers. But it is definitely not worth talking about it while the price is below the volume level of $59,335 and the EMA 50 and 200 of the daily TF passing in that area.
