The current market view on the Fed's rate cut on September 18 is 25/50 basis points, with a probability of 50% respectively.
If the Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points on September 19, it may be interpreted by the market as a recession in the short term, thus starting a recession trade with a wave of declines.
But I am firmly bullish in the next six months, because the Fed wants to take the initiative to Before the curve and actively reject economic recession. I will look for opportunities to go all in.
If it cuts by 25 basis points, I have no idea yet, and I need to wait and see, but I still tend to think that the US economy will have a soft landing.
Before the curve: It means that the Fed wants to be ahead of the market and increase the intensity of interest rate cuts before bad economic data is released.
If the differential economic data comes out and further increases the intensity of interest rate cuts, then the stock market and currency circle should have fallen a lot!
