Regardless of who wins the presidential election, Bitcoin will close at a new all-time high in 2024, according to Standard Chartered. But between the two candidates, the cryptocurrency would surge significantly if Trump is elected.
Analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote Thursday that under the self-proclaimed "crypto-president," Bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the end of the year, suggesting nearly 117% upside based on where Bitcoin is currently trading.
While the former president once opposed the asset class, his stance has shifted in this election.
At the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, Trump announced plans to roll back federal crypto regulations, dubbed “Checkpoint 2.0,” and replace SEC Chairman Gary Gensler.
Trump has also pledged to keep 100% of the Bitcoin owned by the federal government in a national reserve. According to Kendrick, the current supply is about 1% of all Bitcoin ever mined.
“This is similar to the amount of Bitcoin held by MicroStrategy and BlackRock’s ETFs, the two largest known holders of Bitcoin,” the global head of digital assets research wrote.
Trump's turn in support of cryptocurrencies is particularly evident as he faces off against Biden, whose administration is stricter on the industry.
But Kendrick said that compared to Biden, current Democratic candidate Harris will be more open to cryptocurrencies than some people think.
For example, Biden kept in place a bill that would have prevented banks from offering custody of digital assets, while Harris could reverse course.
Kendrick estimates that if Harris wins the presidency, the price of Bitcoin will reach $75,000 by the end of the year. While that's far less than the boost from Trump, it still exceeds Bitcoin's all-time high of nearly $74,000.
“If Harris wins, we think Bitcoin will move higher after an initial dip when the market recognizes that regulatory change is still possible under Harris, even if at a slower pace,” he said.
Like Kendrick, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani also expects Bitcoin to surge under Trump as the market has yet to price in a potentially positive regulatory environment. He predicts that the cryptocurrency will reach as high as $90,000 by December.
Meanwhile, Kendrick cited other factors that could be positive for Bitcoin in the coming months. For example, the cryptocurrency should benefit from the re-steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and renewed momentum in Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Kendrick said that despite lower inflows in the past few months, momentum tends to be seasonal, adding that risk sentiment is lower this summer.
Kendrick has tempered his bullish predictions for Bitcoin, even in the event of a Trump win. Previously, he predicted that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year. However, he now insists that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of next year, regardless of who is president.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
