Overview of important futures data and events next week

1. September 16th (tbd), Mysteel will announce the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil and the iron ore arrivals at ports in northern China. Since the beginning of this year, iron ore prices have continued to fall, a big reason being the supply-demand contradiction caused by the increase in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil and weak market demand. We need to pay attention to subsequent changes in the iron ore supply side.

2. To be determined on September 18, the main contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil futures will be changed to a new month.

3. September 18th (tbd), SPPOMA will announce Malaysia's palm oil production forecast for September 1-15. SPPOMA previously announced data for September 1-10, showing that Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.02% from the previous value. It will be observed whether this data can continue the upward trend.

4. At 02:00 on September 19, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision, followed by a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at 02:30. With inflationary pressures falling and signs of weakness in the job market, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to adjust its monetary policy. This expectation was supported by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, where he said that "the time for policy adjustment has come" and that if economic data meets expectations, the Federal Reserve may discuss lowering the policy rate at its September interest rate meeting. The significance of this decision is that it will mark the end of the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy cycle implemented since March 2022 to respond to high inflation.

5. At 9:00 on September 20, the People's Bank of China released the September loan market quotation rate (LPR). Previously, the 1-year and 5-year LPR were lowered by 10 basis points respectively in July. Zhang Yi, president of China Construction Bank, said at the bank's 2024 mid-term performance conference that major banks have lowered deposit rates at the same time, which can effectively offset the negative impact of the decline in LPR this year, and the impact on the full-year net interest margin can be said to be minimal.

6. September 20th is to be determined, China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of September 19th. Previously, China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of September 12th was 153.8354 million tons. The black series has stopped falling and fluctuated recently. Pay attention to whether the iron ore inventory at the ports can decrease and boost the black series.

7. To be determined on September 20, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will begin.

8. September 20th (tbd), the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) will release the August global primary aluminum production report. In July, global primary aluminum production was 6.194 million tons, compared with 6.048 million tons in the same period last year.

9. September 20th (tbd), ITS/Amspec/SGS announced Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 20. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 10 were 412,771 tons, a decrease of 5.2% from 435,413 tons exported in the same period last month. Pay attention to whether the trend of decreasing palm oil exports will continue. If it continues to decrease, it may be bearish for palm oil prices.

10. At 2:00 a.m. on September 21, Harker, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, delivered a speech at the Freeman School of Business at Tulane University.

11. At 02:30 on September 21, NYMEX New York crude oil October futures were affected by the transfer of positions and the last transaction on the floor was completed at 2:30 on September 21. Investors need to pay attention to the announcement of the expiration and month change of trading venues to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data