As this week is about to end smoothly, the U.S. presidential debate and various macro data have not brought significant fluctuations, and expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week are gradually converging. Currently, judging from the interest rate trading data provided by CME, interest rates will be cut by 25% next week. The probability of a rate cut of 50 basis points is 87%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is only 13%
At the same time, it can be seen from the options data that the IVs of all major periods have declined significantly, and the market's volatility expectations have been disappointed. The market theme in September is still oscillation.
