This year, the altcoin market has experienced wild volatility, leaving many investors on edge.
However, with the US election and interest rate cuts imminent, the market could see major changes.
Here are some highlights from the 2024 Altcoin Outlook Report:
1. No altcoin season
Many are disappointed that there has not been an altcoin season in this cycle.
Since November 2022, altcoins have been underperforming, as shown by TOTAL3/BTC.
The ratio of the top 125 cryptocurrencies (excluding BTC/ETH) to BTC has fallen from 1.05 to 0.49.
2. Market breadth is worrying
The market is currently highly concentrated and dominated by a few large-cap coins.
Only 13% of the top assets outperformed BTC.
Singling outperforming altcoins is as difficult as finding a needle in a haystack.
3. Key events that affect the market
The following four key events have affected the performance of altcoins and Bitcoin this year:
The debut of spot Bitcoin ETF
Bitcoin halving
The debut of spot Ethereum ETF
Ripple partially wins the SEC lawsuit
4. The end of the "altcoin season road"
The launch of the US spot Bitcoin ETF is the most critical event.
Although it is good for Bitcoin, this breaks the traditional "altcoin season road".
The short-lived altcoin rebound was followed by a sharp drop.
The "trickle-down effect" of Bitcoin is seriously overestimated.
5. Trump trading
Another important factor is the Trump trading.
It reflects the market's expectations of the possibility of Trump's second presidency, focusing on pro-growth policies.
After Trump's victory in 2016, small-cap stocks rose sharply, outperforming large-cap stocks by nearly 8%.
Trump trading in 2024
Given so many events this year, it is difficult to accurately determine the impact of Trump trading on the market.
However, we can evaluate this by comparing Polymarket forecast odds with market indices.
For example, the TOTAL3/BTC index shows little correlation with Trump's odds.
By the end of the year, if rate cuts stabilize the economy, Bitcoin's market dominance may decline.
However, if recession fears increase, Bitcoin's market dominance may remain high.
In either case, expect increased differentiation between altcoins
