Many analysts are skeptical about a breakout above the $58,000 resistance level, as this price point triggers an increase in demand for short positions in a large number of BTC futures contracts.

Bitcoin/USD (blue) and S&P 500 futures (red).

Price action over the past three days shows a high level of short-term correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market, which is common during major events such as anticipation of macroeconomic data or an upcoming Federal Reserve decision.

Investors generally hope that inflation data on September 11 that is lower than market expectations will prompt the central bank to take more aggressive interest rate cuts.

While the core U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, prices rose 3.2% when food and gas prices were excluded.

From a trading perspective, the data further reduced the likelihood of a 0.50% rate cut on September 18, leading to a negative initial reaction in the stock market. Opinions vary on how continued inflation will affect Bitcoin prices, especially given the cost of debt financing in the United States.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that interest payments will exceed $1 trillion by 2025. Therefore, the longer the Fed keeps interest rates high, the greater the pressure on government spending. In the long run, this inflationary trend could be good for Bitcoin’s price, despite failing to break through $58,000 on September 10.

However, attributing Bitcoin’s failure to maintain bullish momentum solely to macroeconomic data does not seem consistent, especially considering that its last close above $60,000 was on August 27. Some analysts point to outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), while others cite regulatory uncertainty facing exchanges, services, and intermediaries as the cause.

Therefore, we must continue to be prepared for the possible sharp fluctuations in September. Please keep your feet on the ground and do a good job of risk management.