The market followed the violent rise of the US stock market to 58,200 last night, resulting in a short position of 120 million US dollars being liquidated in the past 24 hours. Needless to say, everyone can see the short squeeze.
From the 4-hour level, 59,000 has now become a resistance position. If it can stand above it, the next strong resistance will be 63,000. This position is also a key point to measure or judge whether it will continue to rise in the future.
The high probability of 6.5 is over. At the same time, since the whole market is so pessimistic, it did not fall below 4.9w in one go last week, and there was no large volume, so everyone can rest assured for a while. Of course, don't think about the main uptrend, the daily line is still shaking
The events this week are the release of CPI and the debate between Trump and Harris. The debate will inevitably have an impact on the economic policies of each party, which will be beneficial to the market to a certain extent.
From a larger time frame, the market is still in a bearish trend, and the current rise should be regarded as a rebound. After the third wave of rebound at the 1-hour level ends, the market may continue to fall.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to try to get everyone on board for at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting later this month.
Powell and others may push for a bigger rate cut because of recent labor market weakness. “Powell doesn’t need a consensus to start cutting rates at the upcoming September meeting, but he may be more inclined to do so, especially for the first cut,” Kathy Bostjancic, senior vice president and chief economist at Nationwide, said in an email.
Betsey Stevenson, a former Labor Department economist, wrote on social media: "Consensus has always been a way to prevent the Fed from becoming politicized. If I were on the FOMC, I think I would prioritize consensus." Dan North, a senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas, said of whether Powell could win consensus for a larger rate cut: "It will be difficult. There will be a lot of dissenting voices, and it will look bad."
"Powell is more worried about the labor market than his peers," Swonk wrote. "He wants a soft landing. The question is whether he will push hard enough for a 50 basis point rate cut and how much opposition he is willing to accept to achieve that goal."
In addition, there is a silent period before the policy decision is made on the 18th. The launch of copycat stocks is after the big cake starts to rise. At that time, capital will choose the direction. When it is neither up nor down, it is the time for the market to bet.
Now we are waiting for the final word on the US dollar trend. If this week's data confirms the market's view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, there will be overly aggressive speculation in the short term about the expected pricing of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index may further strengthen.
But for now, the market is pricing in a range between a 25bp and 50bp rate cut scenario - sentiment is very volatile - which could make global markets move in a random manner.
It is normal to see big drops and big rises and liquidations at the moment. The important thing is to survive first. Only when you have funds in hand can you seize the opportunity! Don't worry too much about other things.
Spot markets need to weather this difficult time in crypto history and stay calm
