From the current point of view, if there is really a "last drop", it is likely to be during the economic recession. There is no rush to discuss the conclusion of Shenyu. 16-19 should be the average interest rate cut cycle of the Federal Reserve. After this cycle, if the economy is in recession, it will enter the stage of flooding. Flooding is naturally the most direct way to stimulate liquidity.
Secondly, in the process of interest rate cuts, because there will be funds to increase risk appetite, it will stimulate funds in the market. Although it is not QE, the activity of funds in the market will be greatly improved, which can be regarded as increasing liquidity to a certain extent.
So there is no chance? My personal opinion is that there is still a chance to gamble, which is Q4 of 2024 and Q1 of 2025. Why?
First: because the interest rate cut has just begun, there is no recession at present, which is helpful for market sentiment.
Second: because of the election, even if we do not consider the effects of previous elections, this election is the first time in the history of the United States that the two parties have truly included cryptocurrencies. It is also the first time that a presidential candidate has publicly supported cryptocurrencies and made certain promises. (Whether it passes or not is not important)
Third: It is because it has not been proven so far that the effect of#BTChalving cannot occur. After all, the price peak brought by halving often coincides with the general election, and it is basically half a year to a year after halving.
Fourth: It is because the new version of FASB will take effect in December 2024, when cryptocurrencies can adopt fair accounting standards and implement fair valuation in financial terms.
So my personal opinion is that you have to judge your own funds by yourself. Listening to others without understanding the meaning is likely to make you passive.
