Macro events pause, earnings season begins👀

Looking ahead, macro events will take a breather next week as Tier 1 data releases slow down, and traders will have to wait until Thursday for Chairman Powell's scheduled speech to confirm the dovish policy pivot as signaled by the other FOMC members. Instead, earnings season will begin in full bloom with the hurdle for EPS beats much higher than the previous 2 quarters. On the rate side, with inflation at risk of re-rising out of their recent soft-patch, bond investors might turn their focus to the ongoing QT and supply estimates, which are expected to show another jump again in the November refunding announcement. As such, we won't be surprised to see a persistent rise in term-premium and steepening of the yield curve, with funding costs staying persistently high despite the market's hopes for otherwise.

#macroeconomic #earningsseason #inflation #yieldcurve #fundingcosts