Investment is not gambling. For some people, keeping money may be more important than making more money. In the previous article (September 4), we briefly discussed the basic situation of this bull market by reviewing the previous bull market. In the article, I also mentioned that, personally, I don’t care about any short-term fluctuations in the market. My core idea is the currency standard. In other words, as long as I can ensure that the amount of bitcoins I have in my hands continues to increase, I don’t care much about the current price fluctuations of bitcoins.
In previous articles, we have mentioned many times that the best strategy for hoarding coins is actually to take advantage of the rules of large cycles. For example, you can allocate funds well during a bear market and buy regularly. Then, after the bull market reaches your expected goals, you can sell a part of it in batches and use the profitable funds to continue buying in the next bear market, doing this simple cyclical operation.
Moreover, there are actually quite a lot of comprehensive indicators that can be used as an auxiliary in this process, such as AHR999 (hoarding indicator), Rainbow Chart, 2-Year MA Multiplier, 200 Week Moving Average Heatmap, The Golden Ratio Multiplier, MVRV Z-Score, RHODL ratio, NUPL indicator, AASI indicator, CBBI index, etc. We have also introduced these indicators in the historical articles of Hualihuawai.
On the basis of strict position management, find one or several auxiliary indicators that best suit you (if you are a technical person, you can even develop or create your own exclusive indicators based on certain data dimensions), and then combine the development trends of the market (fundamentals, news, macroeconomics, etc.), learn to make friends with time, then, after persisting for several cycles (assuming one cycle is 4-5 years), the probability of making money is actually quite high.
But the reality is just the opposite. The simplest strategy is often the hardest to stick to, because many people want to make quick money (big money in a short period of time). Therefore, we can also find that most retail investors who invest in this field end up losing money.
In recent days, the United States has continued to release some relatively important data, which has also caused further fluctuations in various financial markets (including the crypto market). Facing the non-farm payroll data released by the United States yesterday (September 6), although many analysts believe that the Fed's interest rate cut is almost a done deal, the market has also raised concerns about the US economic recession. Therefore, the four major US stock indexes collectively plunged, and Bitcoin also experienced a spike.
I guess it’s because the market performance has not been very good in the past few days. I also found that some friends vented their emotions by leaving comments under the article, so I directly blocked some of the cute people who were rude right away. If someone chooses to unfollow Hualihuawai because I personally insist on being optimistic about Bitcoin for a long time, then apart from proving that you are being controlled by emotions, it will not have any impact on me (Hualihuawai).
At this stage, in addition to macro liquidity, the main reason affecting the trend of the crypto market is the narrative ability of the crypto market itself. In other words, under the basic premise of macro liquidity, the crypto market needs an important (or new) catalyst to make imagination return and further give birth to a new round of bull market. As we mentioned in the previous article (September 4), we may need to continue to wait patiently for a trend change this month (September).
In view of the current market situation, the decision you need to make is actually not complicated:
If you no longer believe in the crypto market and no longer believe that there will be a bull market this year or next year (2025) (for example, you have listened to other people's opinions or made such a judgment through your own indicators), then you can now choose to liquidate your position, short sell, or simply stay put according to your personal situation.
And if you still believe that the bull market is still there, then in the next period of time you only need to buy small when the price drops slightly, and buy large when the price drops sharply (currently only buy Bitcoin spot, and after the market direction becomes clear again, you can consider building a position on the right side in the altcoins you previously liked). How much you can accumulate depends on your own position management.
As for mature traders, I guess the above opinions will not be of much help or impact to them, because no matter whether the market goes up or down, a mature trader can make profits by using various means such as swing trading, long/short trading, etc. But if you are just an ordinary investor, then try to adjust your mindset and don't try to beat the market with your own perception (personal feelings or hearsay). No one can accurately predict the market, and all you have to do is manage the risks.
In other words, good risk management is one of the most important basic strategies to avoid losing money in this field, and it is also crucial to achieving long-term success.
So, how should we understand risk management specifically?
Regarding the topic of risk management, Hualihuawai has already sorted out some of the previous articles, such as management based on position allocation ratio, management based on investment targets, etc. In this issue, we will continue to expand on this topic and make some supplements.
1. Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top
Many people always try to buy at the lowest point. For example, when Bitcoin was at $15,000, many people waited for $10,000. When Bitcoin rose to $40,000, many people waited for $15,000. Now Bitcoin is $56,000, and many people are waiting for $40,000.
Since you have paid attention to and hope to buy a target, I believe that you have at least done some basic research on the target and are optimistic about it. If you want to do swing trading, then study the K-line indicators and pay attention to market dynamics, and then repeatedly execute and optimize based on a certain strategy. If you want to do medium- and long-term operations, then whether you want to build a position on the left or the right, just build a position in batches at a position that you can accept. You don’t have to care about what others say. You need to grasp the opportunity yourself, rather than following other people’s opinions.
...This article is to be continued. We will continue to supplement and update the remaining content through Huali Huawai.
This is where we share the content for this issue. You can view more articles on the homepage of Hualihuawai.
Disclaimer: The above content is only a personal point of view and analysis, and is only used for learning records and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The encryption field is an extremely high-risk market. In addition to various forms of phishing attacks and pig-killing schemes, many projects also have the risk of returning to zero at any time. Please treat it rationally, do not touch it if you do not understand it, and be responsible for yourself.
