September 6, 2024
When the market falls, any news may be interpreted as negative by the market. VanEck announced that it would close and liquidate its Ethereum futures ETF. Some people made a fuss about it, saying that it was because Ethereum was not doing well. In fact, the ETF shares of VanEck were only more than 20 million US dollars, and the management fees collected in a year were not enough for the operating costs. It was normal to announce the dissolution. Moreover, when the ETF was opened, more than a dozen funds wanted to grab this piece of cake, but most of them were eaten by BlackRock. There must be other funds that chose to close later. This kind of news is not negative.
Speaking of news, when the U.S. employment data came out yesterday, it was indeed in line with market expectations, because the expectation was that the interest rate would be cut at the interest rate meeting on the 19th of this month, either 25 or 50 basis points, so the market rose in the short term. However, in the end, this wave of news was once again used by the main force, and those who bought the bottom or chased the rise were not only trapped by the door market, but the overall market fell by more than 5 points, with Bitcoin falling to 52,500 and Ethereum falling to 2,150. The entire market sentiment fell into a slump again, and negative news and sentiments increased.
From the daily line structure, this wave of market has basically reached the major support level, erasing the price of the pin. Whether it can hold on will determine the direction of the market in the next month, whether it will fluctuate upward or continue to search for the bottom. From the K-line, we can see that this price has a certain support, and it can be counted as three bottoming outs. Generally speaking, the probability of holding is still high, so I have re-entered the position of 85 bottom-fishing. According to historical experience, this kind of multiple bottoming out will either succeed twice, or will fall below the short line after three times.
In addition, a friend in the comment area reminded that the ahr999 index has almost fallen to the bottom-fishing range, which means that it is now a suitable fixed investment range. Recently, my rhythm has also changed to mainly spot buying. If there is a good opportunity to do swing trading, I will switch to long-term investment if I am trapped. To be honest, whether the short-term price can rebound remains to be seen, and bottom-fishing will basically suffer floating losses. However, combined with the daily support, I think entering the market at this position has a good winning rate in the short and medium term, and it is a time worth gambling.
Thank you for your attention and likes.
