Official data from the Federal Reserve shows that in the 12 rounds of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve since the 1950s, the US economy ended in recession 9 times. The economy has slowed down before the end of this rate hike. No wonder the market expects a recession so strongly.

The three exceptions to this rule were in 1965, 1984 and 1994.

Both the 1965 and 1984 economic slowdowns were driven by loose policies, while the 1994 “soft landing” was due to the rapid development of modern telecommunications such as computers and the Internet.

During the soft landing in 1994, US inflation was not as high as it is today, but was on a downward trend. The main factor for the Fed to raise interest rates at that time was counter-cyclical regulation to "cool down" the overheated economy at that time.

In the past three tightening cycles, two of them ended in recession. This time, the economy has slowed down before it ends, so the way out for a soft landing may fall on loose policies and new technology development. It seems that only web3 can save the United States😂