Market analysis on September 5 shows that the short-term rebound of Bitcoin has failed to form an obvious upward trend, but there is still demand for a rebound.

Daily Share

After Bitcoin hit 55606 yesterday, it quickly rebounded to around 58500 last night, and then fell back. Based on the strength of yesterday’s rebound, Bitcoin has rebounded back to above 57900. There is actually hope for a 4h level rebound.

At present, I personally think that we can’t continue to be overly bearish here, because the decline is obviously a divergence. Even if the short-term continues to fall and breaks below 55606, it will not go deep and will rebound again. There is still demand for a rebound.

It’s just that the rebound last night failed to form an upward trend structure, and it fell to around 56,500 today. Therefore, even if there is a 4h level rebound here in the short term, it is difficult to go directly to around 65,000 or higher. It is more like a central oscillation at the 4h level.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.

1H：

At the 1h level, we first need to pay attention to whether the current short-term can rush above 58500 again and complete the 1h level rebound. If the big cake rushes above 58500 again in the short term, it means that the big cake is going through a 4h level rebound, as shown by the blue arrow in the above figure. The rebound target is around 62000, and then continue to look for a 4h level callback to 53500.

If 56300 cannot be stabilized and continues to fall, it means that the short-term rebound at the 4h level has not yet come out. Bitcoin will fall back to around 55000 again, and then start a 4h level rebound.

The short-term structure is relatively complex, so be prepared for different situations. It is worth mentioning that it is difficult for the short-term to break out of a sharp downward trend, nor is it difficult to break out of a strong upward trend to historical highs. It is more of an ups and downs shock, so both long and short positions have opportunities. The lower the long position is and the closer to the support, the better, and the closer to the upper pressure, the more cost-effective the short position is.

15M：

At the 15-minute level, observe the support near 56,300. If it fails, it may fall back to the 55,000-55,500 range. If it holds, observe whether it can reach the 58,500-59,000 range in the short term and complete the first 1h level rebound.

I am more inclined to believe that after the pullback here, it will continue to surge upward.

ETH

The 1h decline of Ethereum yesterday has perfectly reached the expected 2300, and then rebounded back to the center. Structurally, it is still inclined to a 4h rebound in the short term, but the short-term correction today is relatively large, so it is still necessary to prevent the possibility of a short-term retracement to 2300 tonight and tomorrow morning.

Under normal circumstances, there should be a third 15-minute rebound to around 2500 to complete the structure of the first 1h rebound. So we need to wait patiently to see if there can be another successful upward rebound in the early morning.

It is expected that Ethereum will have a 4h level rebound from this weekend to the middle of next week, as shown by the blue arrow in the above figure, with the target around 2650.

Trend Direction

Weekly level: Downward direction, extension of weekly decline, theoretically around 49,000, the limit is 45,000~48,000, whether it is over or not still needs to be observed

Daily level: The direction is upward. The probability of Bitcoin rebounding directly from around 49,000 on the daily level has increased. If it does not fall below 49,000 this week, it is possible to rebound again to the 65,000~70,000 range in September.

4-hour level: The direction is upward. In the short term, there is a probability that a 4h level rebound will start to around 62,000.

1-hour level: The direction is upward. Let’s see whether the first 1h-level rebound here can be successful.

15-minute level: Downward direction, stay above 56300, and there is hope to hit 58500. If it falls below, you need to pay attention to the possibility of falling back to 55000​​​