The number of U.S. job openings (JOLTs) released on Wednesday fell to the lowest level since early 2021, and the report is believed to contain some shocking data that suggest that the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report on Friday may be a disaster. Financial blog Leader Hedge said that now, the U.S. government’s pursuit and manipulation of economic data targets has basically ended, and the apparent employment revision is close to record levels.

It is particularly worth noting that the historic collapse of construction job vacancies in the JOLTs report fell from an all-time high of 456,000 in February to a four-year low of 248,000 in July, a plunge of nearly 50% in just six months, returning to the level the US economy first reached in 2016!

During the same period, however, the Labor Department’s “other hand” was apparently unaware of what was happening in the job openings space, with the department reporting that when it came to actual construction jobs, the numbers had never been higher — at 950,000, the number of residential construction jobs was the highest on record.

As the chart shows, the disconnect between the two has never been more outrageous.

So, which number is correct? To answer that, you don’t even need to look at where interest rates are or what the highest rates in 40 years are doing to housing demand. You only need to look at other key indicators of the U.S. housing market, such as housing starts plummeting and the lagged housing completion rate remaining unchanged for two years… which is enough to realize that the number of construction jobs is going to plummet.

Fed policymakers have made clear they do not want to see the labor market cool further, and they are widely expected to begin cutting interest rates at their next meeting in two weeks. After disappointing July payrolls and a sharp downward revision to employment over the past year, Fed officials and market participants are closely watching August payrolls, due on Friday -- another weak report could prompt the Fed to slash interest rates.

Bloomberg strategists said that as layoffs and unemployment increase and job openings decrease, the balance between labor supply and demand is shifting, and labor market slack is becoming more apparent. Ultimately, this should reduce underlying wage and inflation pressures.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data