There are only 199 days left before the Bitcoin halving. Looking back at the past three halvings, they have indeed been able to increase the price of Bitcoin, but is there a strong correlation between the two? Analysts said that it may still require the coordination of overall monetary and fiscal policies...
Israel has been at war with the Palestinian radical organization Hamas since the 7th, causing hundreds of casualties. The war has spread to neighboring countries, and Lebanon has also declared war and joined the war. US President Biden, who has always supported Israel, also announced today (9) that he will order continued support for Israel. It can be said that tensions have risen again.
As the brutal war situation intensifies, new trends in Bitcoin trading volume and discussion heat are also suspected. Mike McGlone, senior macro strategist at Bloomberg News, mentioned in a tweet that Bitcoin has shown a risk-averse trend after the Israel-Hamas conflict, but he also believes that the longer-term downward trend will eventually win:
There is a risk-off trend following the Israel-Hamas escalation, but I think the downward sloping 100-week moving average will eventually defeat the upward 50-week moving average trend, while the surge in crude oil could be a liquidity stress factor.
Halving and war-themed assists?
In addition to the recent talk of war, Bitcoin has recently seen a large wave of price increases last week (2). The SEC began to review Franklin's Bitcoin spot ETF application. At that time, rumors of halving and ETFs began to spread like wildfire. The price rose from $27,000 to nearly $28,600, and then fell back below $27,300.
There was another small wave of market around the 7th, soaring from 27,200 US dollars to 28,300 US dollars, and it has been fluctuating around 28,000 US dollars as of press time. According to santimentfeed data, the largest single-day exchange BTC outflow since September 7 occurred. Judging from the time point, it may be related to the news from Israel's Hasma.
However, how long can the war theme last, and how long will the complex Palestinian and Israeli issues continue in the future? Under the overall economic situation, the market originally expected that interest rates would not be cut until the end of 2024. Whether the sudden war will have further impact on the global situation and the US Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates may need to be closely observed.
