Midcap/Others

Any index will also be dependent on $BTC. If BTC makes new lows, so will the Others. If $BTC reverses and holds 66K-65K, most indexes will also break the trend. Most indexes will look the same, but I will use the Others index as an example of exactly what I am looking at right now. Basically, on HTF, we are in a range of volatility without any lower or higher confirmation. Buying spot here for long term investment is risky because you are gambling without a clear directional bias. There is a 50% chance that you will be right.

On the other hand, if $BTC makes new lows, the Others index will reach the 135B area, which to me would be a safer area to buy spot, with a better RR. If we don't go that low and don't bottom, then the safest thing for you to do is to look for a breakout of the 224B area, which is the high that Others recently reached. In this case, you will see a move similar to what I have drawn in the chart below: higher lows and higher highs strongly suggest a trend change and the midcaps start a new uptrend. Both options are safer than buying here without clear confirmation.

Before I saw the trend change, my assumption was that mid-cap coins were in a bear cycle. A trend change would signal a new bull cycle. Of course, being 50% correct is not too bad, but I am just suggesting other options that may be safer for you if you are looking for long-term spot investment. In the end, all I can do is discuss all possible scenarios and the risks involved, and you need to decide which scenario to follow.