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Powell issued the "strongest voice for rate cuts" at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting
Kazuo Ueda: Ready to raise interest rates if economic growth and inflation are on track
ECB board member Holzmann: September rate cut is not a done deal
Source: Hamas and Israel disagree with several compromise proposals put forward by mediators
Houthis say they are ready to strike Israeli targets
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee deliberated on the "Several Policy Measures to Further Promote the New Pattern of Western Development"
Premier Li Qiang: Promote innovation in robotics technology
Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the Central Bank: We will strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation
Market Review
Last Friday, the U.S. dollar index plunged sharply as Powell sent the most obvious dovish signal so far, and finally closed down 0.83% at 100.68. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.8040%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, finally closed at 3.1970%.
Boosted by the weakening dollar and the expectation of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, spot gold once rose by $20, and finally closed up 1.22% at $2,512.01 per ounce. Spot silver finally closed up 2.93% at $29.82 per ounce.
As the Federal Reserve sent a strong signal that interest rate cuts were imminent, international oil prices continued to rise. WTI crude oil maintained an upward trend throughout the day, and finally closed up 2.73% at $74.91 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 2.56% at $79.05 per barrel.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 1.14%, the S&P 500 rose 1.15%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.47%. Bilibili (BILI.O) closed up 15.28%, and the company's second-quarter net revenue exceeded market expectations. Apple (AAPL.O) rose 1.03%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 4.59%, and Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 4.55%. Popular Chinese stocks rose and fell, with Alibaba (BABA.N) rising 2.98% and Pinduoduo (PDD.O) falling 4.97%.
Major European stock indices closed higher across the board, with Germany's DAX index closing up 0.76%; Britain's FTSE 100 index closing up 0.48%; and Europe's STOXX 50 index closing up 0.50%.
The Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks closed down 0.16%, the Hang Seng Technology Index closed down 1.13%, and the Hang Seng market turnover reached HK$78.773 billion. On the market, Alibaba concept stocks, clothing stocks, and insurance stocks led the gains, while pharmaceutical stocks, catering stocks, and game software stocks fell the most. In terms of individual stocks, GDS (09698.HK) closed up 13.5%, AAC Technologies (02018.HK) closed up 4.8%, Ping An of China (02318.HK) closed up 3.64%, NetEase (09999.HK) closed down 10.28%, Hansoh Pharmaceutical (03692.HK) closed down 6.91%, and Brilliance China (01114.HK) closed down 6.37%.
The three major A-share indexes opened slightly lower and basically maintained a narrow range of fluctuations throughout the day. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.20%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.02%. On the market, Huawei's industrial chain rose sharply, Shenzhen Huaqiang rose for 7 consecutive days, and many stocks such as Tuowei Information rose by the daily limit. Digital currency concepts fluctuated and strengthened, and Beijing North and Uboxun rose by the daily limit. Insurance, securities and other major financial sectors fluctuated and rose. The home appliance sector strengthened, and Shenzhen Konka A, Changhong Meiling and others rose by the daily limit. Western development concept stocks broke out in the late trading, and many stocks such as Western Entrepreneurship and Xinjiang Communications Construction rose by the daily limit. Robot concepts continued to adjust, and Asda fell by the daily limit. Insurance, IT equipment, software services, home appliances, securities and other sectors led the gains; public transportation, textiles and clothing, solid-state batteries, medicines, ships and other sectors led the declines.
International News
1. Powell issued the "strongest voice for rate cuts" at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting: the time for policy adjustment has come; confidence in inflation returning to 2% has increased. Further cooling of the labor market is not sought or welcomed. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September increased after Powell's speech, and the rate cut of nearly 100 basis points remained stable before the end of the year. The "Federal Reserve megaphone" said that Powell's policy shift has been completed.
2. Fed's Bostic: We are close to preparing to cut interest rates and may be in favor of more than one rate cut this year. The long-term federal funds rate is expected to be 3%; Harker: We need to start cutting interest rates; the neutral interest rate is about 3%, and the unemployment rate will not exceed 5%. Goolsby: All the conditions for rate cuts we hope to achieve have been met. There is good reason to believe that the Fed's forecast for rate cuts will be realized. The Fed now needs to focus on the employment task. The magnitude of the Fed's rate cut is not the most important, the future path is the key.
3. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: If economic growth and inflation are on track, we are ready to raise interest rates at any time. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki: The possibility of Japan's economy falling back into deflation cannot be ruled out.
4. ECB board member Holzmann: September rate cut is not a done deal; Source: Support for a September rate cut is beginning to form within the ECB.
5. Iranian Foreign Minister: The response to Israel will be at the right time and in the right way.
6. The Houthi armed forces said they are ready to attack Israeli targets.
7. Hezbollah in Lebanon fired a large number of rockets and drones at Israel. The first phase of its response to Israel has been completed; the Israeli army said it had launched a preemptive strike on Lebanon. 8. 100 fighter jets attacked Hezbollah rocket launchers. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged information after the exchange of fire on Sunday, and both sides said they did not want the situation to escalate further.
9. The suspect in the stabbing incident in Solingen, Germany surrendered to the police, and the Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack.
10. Yemeni Houthi armed official Atef said: We are fully prepared to launch in-depth strikes on Israeli targets, and that the Houthi armed forces have been closely monitoring and conducting in-depth intelligence analysis on relevant targets. The strikes are inevitable and will have a strategic and decisive impact.
11. Two Egyptian security sources: No agreement was reached in the Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo. Both Hamas and Israel disagreed with several compromise proposals put forward by the mediators.
12. According to Argentina's Clarin newspaper, the place where Argentine President Milley was going to deliver a speech received a bomb threat.
13. The Canadian Labour Board ordered the railway workers to end their strike.
14. Robert Kennedy Jr., an independent presidential candidate, said he would suspend his campaign, but his name would remain on the ballot in some states. He will now support Trump for president.
15. The stranded U.S. astronauts will return to Earth in February 2025 onboard the Dragon spacecraft (a commercial spacecraft developed by SpaceX).
16. Apple plans to release new iPhone, AirPods and Watch on September 10, and the new phones are expected to go on sale on September 20.
17. The founder of the social media "Telegram" was arrested in France.
Domestic News
1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to review "Several Policy Measures to Further Promote the New Pattern of Western Development". Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting.
2. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council: We must focus on the needs of industrial transformation and consumption upgrading, aim at international cutting-edge progress, promote innovation in robotics technology, and continuously strengthen basic research and core technology research.
3. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China: The number of high-risk small and medium-sized banks has been reduced by nearly half from the peak. The next step will be to strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, guide the reasonable growth of money and credit, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.
4. Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission: I hope that institutional investors will continue to have firm confidence, maintain their composure, and steadily promote the optimization and improvement of key systems such as issuance, listing, trading, and delisting.
5. The China Securities Regulatory Commission released the accounting supervision report on the 2023 annual financial reports of listed companies: some listed companies still have accounting treatment or financial information disclosure errors in terms of revenue, long-term equity investments and corporate mergers, financial instruments, asset impairment, income tax, and non-recurring gains and losses.
6. The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of lead, nickel, tin and alumina options.
7. The implementation details of the second round of home appliance trade-in have been released, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per item.
8. Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: The real estate market is still in a period of adjustment. With the implementation of various policies, positive changes have occurred in the market. We will actively promote the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing.
9. National Energy Administration: As of the end of July, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was approximately 3.1 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%.
10. State Council Food Safety Office: The joint investigation team determined after investigation and verification that the incident of mixed transportation of edible vegetable oil by tank trucks was of an extremely serious nature, violated basic common sense, trampled on moral bottom lines and legal red lines, and was a typical illegal and criminal behavior that must be severely punished.
11. The central bank has begun stress testing the risk exposure of financial institutions' bond assets.
12. People familiar with the matter: Financial regulatory authorities have not prohibited small and medium-sized financial institutions from trading in government bonds.
13. US President’s National Security Advisor Sullivan will visit China, and China will focus on making serious demands on the Taiwan issue and other issues.
14. Bank of China: President Liu Jin resigned.
15. Has the charging standard for housing pension been determined? Relevant departments responded: Not true.
16. SERES: SERES Automotive plans to purchase 10.00% equity interest in Shenzhen Yinwang held by Huawei Technologies for a transaction price of 11.5 billion yuan.
17. The 2024 summer movie box office will exceed 11 billion.
Risk Warning
☆At 20:30, the United States announced the July durable goods orders monthly rate, the market expected it to be 5%, and the previous value was -6.70%;
☆At 22:30, the United States released the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for August. The market expectation was -16 and the previous value was -17.5.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
