Over the weekend, don't look at new highs. The most basic thing is to give back 38.2% of the increase within 24 hours. If you step back to cover your position, you won't pull the average cost price too high. Don't chase the current price. Some people said in the morning that it was too strong and couldn't come down at all. Don't be too aggressive. Look at things from the perspective of change and development. A strong early trading does not mean that there will be no retracement after the midday trading. No matter how strong it is, it will not be easy to stand firm at 63,800. There will be a second chance of retracement later. Moreover, the starting point of the rise to around 65,000 this morning was around 60,666 last night, with an increase of more than 4,000 points. It is impossible not to step back.
A few days ago, I said that after breaking through the pressure, there will be a small unilateral rise (I thought it would only hype the expectation of interest rate cuts 1-2 weeks in advance, ignoring the time point of Powell's speech on August 23, and long positions were conservative. The current market is clear). It may fluctuate and rise slowly for 2-3 weeks. There are still short-term opportunities to encounter resistance and step back in the middle, but the market has turned to be dominated by the bulls, so we should focus on long positions and supplement them with high positions. For long positions, you can try to move up to 66600 and 68350 to stop profit at 75% in batches, and then chase the high with small positions.
The current rise is to digest the expectation of interest rate cut in September in advance, and the interest rate cut is basically 100% confirmed. When the interest rate cut is implemented on September 18, the market will start to fall sharply. Set an alarm and run in advance on September 17 to lock in the existing profits to avoid spitting. Generally, the middle of the third month of each quarter is a time for market changes, and the decline is to pave the way for a new wave of market in the next quarter. The opportunity to cover the spot position is in the middle and late next month. If the fourth quarter starts to take a unilateral upward trend, then there will be a greater need for a bigger adjustment in the middle and late September.
