The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only

European Line

Trading logic: Gaza ceasefire negotiations are on the verge of abortion; the current market price is far from the spot index, reflecting the low market valuation level; shipping companies' spot prices have finally stabilized temporarily, and Maersk's prices have even slightly rebounded in the next two weeks.

Risk factors: After the peak season was moved forward, European purchasing demand continued to decline, and some shipping companies reduced voyages to adapt to the reduction in booking demand; with the launch of new ships, the supply of shipping capacity increased accordingly, further increasing the pressure on freight rates; the SCFI European freight rate index fell by 183.73 points

Focus on events: Fed's interest rate cut policy; shipping companies' adjustment of freight rates; whether Palestine and Israel can successfully cease fire; changes in SCFI European freight rate index, etc.

Palm Oil

Trading logic: Indonesia will implement the B40 biodiesel policy on January 1, 2025; from August 1 to 20, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.90% and output decreased by 1.21%; the increase in import costs and the positive rebound of Malaysian palm oil boosted palm oil futures prices; India celebrates several festivals including Diwali, and edible oil consumption usually rises from September to November

Risk factors: Domestic palm oil stocks increased, and domestic demand remained weak; a survey by a shipping survey agency showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports fell from August 1 to 20, and the ringgit strengthened.

Focus on events: Malaysia's palm oil exports, high-frequency data on production; the implementation of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel policy; weather in relevant oil-producing areas; domestic palm oil stocks, etc.

Lithium carbonate

Trading logic: Some lithium carbonate manufacturers reduce production due to cost pressure; cathode material production is expected to increase month-on-month; inventory growth slows down, and the market expects that the inventory inflection point will come; macro sentiment improves; downstream willingness to buy on dips increases

Risk factors: The commissioning of new projects in the second half of the year may further intensify the competitive landscape of enterprises; China's lithium carbonate imports increased month-on-month in July; the decline in lithium salts in the previous period led to a continuous decline in the gross profit margin of outsourcing enterprises, and related manufacturers were more likely to reduce production

Focus on events: whether the willingness of upstream lithium salt plants to maintain prices has weakened; macro and futures market trends; supply disturbances of large mines and lithium salt enterprises, downstream reserve demand, etc.

Shanghai Nickel

Trading logic: Domestic pure nickel social inventory is accumulating; although the cost support of nickel sulfate is relatively strong, the downstream acceptance is relatively limited, and it is difficult to find bright spots on the demand side; the demand for stainless steel is weak, which may lead to production cuts at steel mills

Risk factors: US economic data is better than expected; the slow progress of Indonesia's RKAB approval has led to concerns about tight nickel ore supply; stainless steel plants maintain a high production schedule, which provides some support for the demand for primary nickel.

Focus on events: We need to continue to pay attention to US economic data and the policy trends of the Federal Reserve; the approval progress of Indonesia's RKAB and the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia; changes in demand in the stainless steel market and production plans of steel mills, etc.

soda ash

Trading logic: The total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises has increased, and the inventory pressure is relatively large; the downstream demand is general, the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, and the market transaction center of gravity has shifted downward; the glass industry continues to accumulate inventory, and there is still an expectation of cold repairs in the future

Risk factors: The operating rate of soda ash has declined and there are news of major factories undergoing maintenance; macroeconomic expectations have improved, and the expected implementation of special bonds has boosted market sentiment; the current cost of ammonia and soda is close to the low valuation pattern

Focus on events: spot trends and follow-up order receipt; downstream photovoltaic glass cold repair situation; soda ash manufacturers' inventory changes and profit changes, etc.

Coking coal

Trading logic: The sixth round of price increases and decreases for coke has begun; poor spot transactions have led to inventory accumulation; rigid demand has declined significantly, and downstream purchases are cautious; the average daily molten iron output has decreased by 241,100 tons month-on-month; there are still many cases of online auction failures

Risk factors: Long-process capacity is still high, and demand has certain support; Mine operation remains high, and coal washing plants have good orders at the end of the month; Billet prices have improved month-on-month, and steel companies' profits have recovered.

Focus on events: the recovery of terminal demand; whether the price cut of coke will continue; spot transaction situation; changes in inventory and production; hot metal production, etc.

crude

Trading logic: The U.S. releases a revised report on employment statistics, exacerbating concerns about demand; investors expect OPEC to cancel some voluntary production cuts in October; investors are concerned about the outlook for global demand

Risk factors: Hamas said in a public statement that it does not accept the ceasefire agreement, and the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza have reached a deadlock; the decline in US crude oil inventories provides support for oil prices; the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates to increase fuel demand

Focus on events: changes in geopolitical factors; changes in U.S. and global crude oil inventories; U.S. economic data, whether the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates, etc.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is compiled from public sources. This article strives to provide accurate and reliable information, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions based on this information.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data