In the world of Bitcoin, every market cycle, whether it is climbing or falling, seems to follow an inherent rhythm. These rhythms not only reveal the market's self-regulating mechanism, but also reflect the complex interaction of investor psychology and macroeconomic factors.
This article will explore these cyclical patterns, revealing how Bitcoin exhibits different market behaviors in each cycle, as well as the growth trajectory of these behaviors, and analyze the economic logic and market psychology behind these cycles step by step.
Bitcoin’s Return on Investment (RIO)
Let’s look at Bitcoin’s return on investment (RIO), the first cycle (blue candlestick), the second cycle (orange candlestick), the third cycle (yellow candlestick), and the fourth cycle (purple candlestick).
Ignoring the first cycle as it represents the early days of the Bitcoin market when the market size was very small, we choose to focus our analysis on the second and third cycles as these provide richer data and insights.
In the historical data in the figure above, we can see that Bitcoin's return on investment (RIO) ushered in a round of significant growth after more than 400 days and more than 500 days in the second and third cycles respectively. Currently, we are in the fourth cycle. The growth potential and timing of this cycle have also become the focus of extensive public discussion and research.
Investors and analysts believe that if past development patterns are followed, the current Bitcoin return on investment (RIO) explosion will not be too far away.
The Bitcoin Cycle
We assume that each cycle starts from the day when the current Bitcoin price low and the Bull Market Suport Band hit the bottom.
Currently, we are at the 600+ day mark of the fourth cycle, which is very similar to the time in the previous cycle when the significant pull-up began. About 600 days after the last cycle (the third cycle) and the previous cycle (the second cycle), Bitcoin began a crazy rise.
Based on this pattern, we have reason to believe that we may be in the early stages of a new round of sharp rise in Bitcoin, which may indicate that a new bull market is taking shape and may start at any time.
Market sentiment is not high
Although Bitcoin has quadrupled in price from $15,000 to more than $70,000 in this cycle, the market has not shown the obvious FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment seen in the previous cycle.
If you are an old OG and have been following the crypto market over the past few years, you may have noticed that there are not many new users discussing cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin in this cycle compared to the bull run in previous years.
In the last cycle, when the price of Bitcoin exceeded $60,000, people could be heard discussing Bitcoin almost everywhere, such as in restaurants, gyms, and even on the side of the road.
In sharp contrast, in this cycle, although the current price is the same as the price of $60,000 in the previous cycle, the market has not shown obvious FOMO (fear of missing out) chasing up sentiment. This may indicate that the market holds a more cautious and rational attitude towards the current value and future potential of Bitcoin.
Mad Bull is about to start
However, some believe that this phenomenon may actually be a positive sign for Bitcoin in this cycle. This may mean that retail investors are still on the sidelines and the market has not yet fully attracted the attention of new investors. But this situation may change at any time. Once the Bitcoin bull market really starts, the market may usher in another round of FOMO chasing craze.
If this bull run really starts and the price of Bitcoin breaks through six figures, it will undoubtedly stimulate the interest and participation of more retail investors. At that time, do you really think it would be a wise move for retail investors to buy at a high level?
In the next few months or even at the end of the year, there may be a real bull market at any time! By then, the price of Bitcoin may reach a new height that is difficult for new users to reach! As for whether the next round of surge will be close to $100,000, I believe time will give us the answer!
Conclusion:
With every cycle of the Bitcoin market, we not only witness the ups and downs of prices, but also experience the ups and downs of market sentiment. At present, we may be on the eve of a new round of Bitcoin bull market, and a more stable and mature market seems to be beckoning us. Seize the opportunity, remain patient, and welcome the new heights of wealth it may bring us in the financial world.
