Bitcoin breaks through the $61,000 mark. Traders are anxiously awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on interest rates on Friday, with market watchers closely watching for any hint of a possible 50 basis point rate cut, as the Fed releases its latest meeting minutes and the US non-farm payrolls data is significantly revised down, with a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
Wednesday's Fed minutes showed that Fed officials last month strongly favored a rate cut at the September policy meeting, and earlier data showed that the Labor Department revised its employment data for the 12 months ending March 2024 down by 818,000 from the previously reported 2.9 million new jobs. This is the largest initial downward revision since the global financial crisis, indicating that the apparent weakness in the labor market may be more obvious than previously thought.
Due to Bitcoin’s recent price volatility, many are asking if the bull run is over. However, historical data suggests otherwise. The market is currently testing the support level of the “fair value range” for the second time since the halving began. This pattern mirrors cycles in 2016 and 2020, when Bitcoin similarly moved sideways before a major breakout. It is too early to declare the bull run over. Historically, a price surge usually occurs about 160 days after the halving.
Bitcoin’s bull run is far from over, here’s why
Whale accumulation and global liquidity indicate strength
Institutional investors, especially Bitcoin giants, are sending signals of confidence. In the past six weeks alone, wallets holding 100 to 1,000 Bitcoin have accumulated another 100,000 Bitcoin. This accumulation occurs as Bitcoin consolidates around its fair value, indicating that large investors are positioning for future gains. In addition, global liquidity is rising, which has historically been a precursor to large Bitcoin price movements. This pattern of liquidity driving price increases is one we have seen before, and the current trend suggests that a large increase may be imminent.
Institutional adoption and a weaker dollar: key drivers going forward
In addition to individual whale activity, institutional adoption is also accelerating. Currently, 60% of the largest US hedge funds hold Bitcoin, further proving its role in traditional finance. Companies like MicroStrategy have shifted their strategies to hold Bitcoin as a treasury, achieving exponential growth since 2021. In addition, the US dollar is another key factor to watch. Historically, when the US dollar weakens, the price of Bitcoin has soared, and the current US dollar index shows signs of a possible collapse. Coupled with the increase in institutional and retail adoption, this shows that Bitcoin's bull run is not only intact, but may also accelerate in the coming months.
