Today, all the channels I used to view northbound data have stopped updating, so I did not read the news wrong last night. Starting from August 19, the details of the inflow and outflow of northbound funds will be changed from daily to quarterly announcement.
Since the opening of the northbound channel in 2014, there has been a net inflow of foreign capital for nine consecutive years. At the peak of history, the cumulative net inflow of foreign capital was close to 2 trillion. The turning point came in August last year, when foreign capital overall bought less and sold more. In the first eight months of 2024, there was an annual net outflow for the first time.
Since the data on northbound foreign investment has a great influence, the regulator has made an adjustment before, changing the original real-time data updated during trading to data updated after the market closes. Now it has been changed again, and the data will be reviewed once every quarter in the future.
How should I put it? There is a positive side to everything. When I watched the movie "The Warlords", there was a scene that left a deep impression on me. Before Andy Lau rode his horse to charge into the enemy camp, he took out a piece of black cloth and blindfolded the horse's eyes so that the horse could not see the spear in front of it and could charge forward without fear.
Now the horse is in place, all that’s missing is Andy Lau.
……
After I published the article last night, some netizens reminded me that there were errors in the content related to Black Myth: Wukong and Huayi Brothers.
I searched and found that the equity information between them has indeed been updated. First, Huayi Brothers sold most of its Hero Entertainment shares in 2021, leaving only about 5%; second, Hero Entertainment sold all of its Game Science shares (the developer of the game "Black Myth") for 480 million in 2022.
What is more strange is that of the 480 million transfer payment, 280 million has been received in 2022, and the remaining 200 million is negotiated to be paid no later than April 1, 2025. I think there are some variables here, after all, the equity transfer transaction has not been completely completed.
But no matter what, one thing is certain, that is, Huayi Brothers' "monkey content" is very low, which is equivalent to a layer of separation. It is "suspected" to hold about 0.5% of Game Science's shares in an indirect way. Even if Game Science makes a profit of 1 billion, Huayi Brothers will only have 5 million in equity, which is not enough to quench its thirst at all.
Because so, although, Huayi still rose 20% today, and the cumulative increase in the last four trading days was 43%. The market does not mind the "small amount of monkeys", the key is that the theme is rare, and Huayi is the only concept stock that can be associated with Monkey King. In addition, the entire game sector was also stimulated to rise 1.5% today, thanks to Monkey King.
Today, the popularity of Monkey King continues to soar, and it has completely broken through the circle and swept the social media platform. I think it is very likely that the sales will exceed 5 million copies. The price is 268, and the revenue is 1.3 billion or 1.4 billion. There is no problem making money. These 5 million are almost the limit of domestic players. If you want to go higher, you have to rely on overseas buying. It is not clear whether foreign players will be interested in Monkey King. In the European and American circles, they have the following perception of Sun Wukong:
5 million is satisfying, 10 million+ is a surprise, and don’t even think about going above that. In the history of games, all games that can exceed 10 million are classic masterpieces.
Oh, by the way, a few days ago I talked to you about an American local game set in LA, which had the highest sales of a single game in history. That record is very abstract, but it sold more than 200 million copies, which is far from the truth.
……
Today, A-shares traded 570 billion yuan, and the market median fell 0.45%, but you will find that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.49%, because today the CSI Bank Index rose nearly 2%, and the share prices of the four major banks, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and China Construction Bank, continued to set new historical highs.
From 2024 to date, Bank of Communications is up 45%, Agricultural Bank of China is up 41%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is up 38%, CCB is up 30%, and CMB is up 27%. For silver fans, this year has been brilliant and beautiful, but for retail investors who have not allocated bank stocks, this is a terrible black hole of funds, which continuously siphons away liquidity, resulting in an extremely fierce stock game in A-shares.
Are bank stocks too expensive after such a huge increase? If we look at historical valuations, they are actually not that bad now.
Didn’t I recommend you a small program called Red Rocket before? If you search for the CSI Bank Index, you can see the PE and PB percentiles for the past 10 years:
Both PE and PB are lower than 50%, which shows that the valuation was indeed too low in previous years.
This is a vertical comparison with the past history, but if compared horizontally with other sectors, banks are not cheap now, because the vast majority of A-share sectors are now in the "too low" range in history, and only a few can rebound to "moderate" levels like banks.
……
1. The Federal Reserve released a clear signal of interest rate cuts. Today, the US dollar index is weak and the RMB exchange rate has risen to 7.12. In the past, when the exchange rate rose, A shares would also rise, but now it feels like a fool.
2. The national wholesale price data of 28 kinds of vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that the daily price of vegetables nationwide was 4.27 yuan/kg on June 16, and rose to 6.01 yuan/kg on August 15, an increase of nearly 40%. Have you felt the price of vegetables rising when you bought vegetables recently?
3. Xiamen has adjusted its real estate settlement policy. I won’t post the details here. Basically, anyone who has bought a house can apply for a residence permit. Xiamen’s housing prices have fallen sharply in the past two years among second-tier cities, comparable to Wuhan. Now it is urgent to introduce policies to save the market, not to mention boosting housing prices, but at least to slow down the decline. However, now that all cities are competing for talent, the overall attractiveness of Xiamen’s residence permit is not outstanding.
4. Midea Group's revenue in the first half of the year increased by 10.3%, and its profit increased by 14.11%. I think this is quite good considering its size, environment and growth rate. Its growth rate is higher than Gree's, and its valuation is correspondingly higher than Gree's.
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