The recent structural differentiation of the crypto market is very obvious. Although Bitcoin has performed strongly, the market of altcoins has been in a bear market since March this year. Old altcoins generally fell by 3 times, and the decline of new coins was even more exaggerated, usually falling by 6 to 10 times. The market may further differentiate in the future, which is why big exchanges like Binance and OK have been delisting some tokens. Many altcoins that lack value support will eventually return to zero. Instead of wasting resources, it is better to focus on supporting potential altcoins and let them stand out in the market, while those that have no future should be eliminated.
The market over the weekend was particularly frustrating. The market spent two days over the weekend to finally break through the $60,000 mark. Everyone was just shouting that the bull market was coming back, but an hour later the market collapsed and the price of Bitcoin fell back to around $58,000.
Before the altcoins had time to follow the rise, they were caught in another wave of panic selling. The current market seems to be getting further and further away from the altcoin bull market. In this round of market, except for a wave of rebound at the beginning of the year due to the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, the main theme of altcoins has basically been falling. The decline of old altcoins is generally about 3 times, while the decline of new coins is even greater, basically falling 6 to 10 times. So although Bitcoin has performed well, altcoins have been slow to enter the bull market, and instead have become the "cannon fodder" that drives Bitcoin up. This phenomenon occurs in every round of the market, but this time the situation of the market sucking blood from the altcoins lasted too long. I predict that there may be no large-scale altcoin bull market in this round of the market. The structurality of the market is more obvious. Many altcoins may never turn over again. Only a few valuable sectors have the opportunity to usher in a bull market, such as AI, RWA, DEPIN, BTCFI, restaking, DEFI, and mainstream L1 and L2 projects. Those projects that once rose due to the trend, such as NFT, DEFI, GAMEFI, etc., will hardly have a chance to come out again as the trend passes. So everyone must be aware of this, adjust the asset structure in time, choose high-quality tracks and get closer to the leaders. The ultimate goal is to earn more Bitcoin, only in this way can we survive the bull and bear markets.
There are many major events in the macroeconomics this week. At 21:15 on Monday night, Fed Governor Waller will give an opening speech at a seminar on money, banking, payments and finance; at 1:35 on Wednesday morning, 2024 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech; at 2:00 on Thursday morning, the Fed will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting; the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will also be held on Thursday; at 22:00 on Friday night, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the annual meeting. This is the most important event of the week. Every year, the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting will trigger huge market fluctuations.
For this year's Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, Goldman Sachs believes that Powell will send a "rate cut signal" and a "data-dependent" message, that is, the Fed is close to cutting interest rates, but the degree of easing will depend on future data performance. Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that the core of Powell's speech may revolve around "maintaining labor market stability." If Powell shows a more resolute attitude to prevent a weak labor market, this will be seen as an important policy signal.
In the altcoin market, Ethereum performed well over the weekend. Vitalik Buterin has been making comments recently. $neiro and $dacc have surged due to Vitalik Buterin's activities. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has also been rising steadily and is now stable at around 0.045. The funds of the Ethereum ETF have also achieved balance. Even if the on-chain gas fee is only 1, Ethereum can maintain its price.
Next, the meme market is expected to move from the sol chain to Ethereum, and the on-chain activity and developers may usher in an explosion, which will also have a positive impact on the future market price. Sun Ge entered the meme market, and he hatched a golden dog coin $sundog as soon as he arrived, and the market value broke through 100 million US dollars. In addition, sunpump's TVL (total locked volume) has become the third largest protocol in the TRX ecosystem, reaching 620 million US dollars. In just a few days, more than 2,000 memes were issued. Although it cannot be compared with the pump platform, it can be regarded as taking advantage of the popularity. However, as an industry terminator, Sun Ge is expected to end this wave of meme market.
Although this wave of meme coins is very popular, it is really difficult to make money through PVP (player vs. player). I hope that a healthier altcoin model can emerge, and a better narrative model can bring about a real altcoin bull market. $dogs in the $ton ecosystem can already receive ton wallets and CEX. Now the contract trading of OKX and gate has begun, and the official trading will also start tomorrow. The current OTC price is about $0.002. One order number of 10,000 coins can make some pocket money, which is not much.
Summarize
The current cryptocurrency market is very polarized. Old and new altcoins are generally falling, and only a few potential sectors may usher in a bull market. Everyone should adjust their investment strategies and focus on investing in those potential projects. At the same time, there will be many macroeconomic events and political developments this week, which may have an impact on the market. Everyone should be particularly careful when operating.
