For gamblers who love to play contracts, they will save as many as they can. In the past two weeks, the mentality of cryptocurrency traders has been like a roller coaster, with messages in the fan group exploding and unable to respond in time.
In the past, when I made trend predictions, there were people who argued against market fluctuations. I found that such predictions were likely to attract brainless investors, so today I will not make predictions. Instead, I will talk about how to get through short-term fluctuations and see long-term trends, and share methods of reading news, capturing information, and analyzing and judging.
2. Summary of last week’s crypto market information
On Black Monday, the global stock market and crypto market crashed, and Bitcoin once fell below $50,000. According to Quin Glass data, nearly 300,000 people were liquidated on August 5, with a total amount of $1.11 billion.
There are two main reasons for the plunge:
The US non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, triggering the Sam's Rule, causing panic in global markets and fears of a recession.
The Bank of Japan raised interest rates and the yen carry trade reversed, leading to market deleveraging and reduced liquidity, causing fluctuations in the stock and crypto markets.
Afterwards, the Bank of Japan announced that it would not raise interest rates, and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States was lower than expected, easing market panic. Cryptocurrencies rebounded rapidly, and Bitcoin returned to above 60,000.
3. The role of the financial calendar. If you want to work in the financial circle, you must know how to read the news and know it in advance.
The fluctuations caused by data can be used to increase profit opportunities, but the risks are also high. There are many variables from data to results, and it is easy to make inaccurate judgments and lead to losses.
It can also be used as a hedging tool by not trading or taking profits before the release of important economic indicators.
4. Financial News Sources
You can read old media such as Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal, Roitters, Financial Times, CNBC, etc., but they are biased, so it is best to pay for paid content. If you want to understand the industry in depth, it is recommended to buy research reports from professional institutions, and don't look for clips on the Internet or short video platforms.
5. The correlation between the crypto market and the US stock market
The mainstream view is that the trend of cryptocurrencies is affected by the global economy, especially the U.S. stock market. When there is capital inflow, the trend will rise, and when there is panic, the trend will fall.
Some people also believe that the correlation is temporary, and that cryptocurrencies can play the role of digital gold in times of crisis and form a hedge against U.S. stock assets.
Over the past 10 years, the trends of Bitcoin and U.S. stocks have been basically the same, and the positive correlation has been particularly evident since 2022.
This year, the crypto market has become a mainstream asset, mainly due to the US SEC's approval of multiple spot ETFs, such as BlackRock iShares, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, Fidelity Bitcoin Fund, etc., with huge net value scale, attracting a large number of investors to allocate.
Last week, there was breaking news that Morgan Stanley allowed financial advisors to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to specific clients. Morgan Stanley has the largest financial advisory network in the United States and manages huge amounts of assets. Its leading recommendation may lead other investment banks to enter the market and push up the price of the currency.
VI. Conclusion
I didn’t make any predictions in this issue, but I shared the logic behind my judgments. Some people on the Internet just go all-in when they see the blogger’s predictions, and argue when they lose money. Qualified investors should not panic. This is the reason why we set thresholds for screening communication circles. See you next time, bye.
In the previous bull market, the situation is turbulent, and we have the opportunity to share passwords every day.
I still say that, if you don’t know what to do in the bull market, click on my avatar and follow me, I will share the bull market spot planning and contract password for free.
I need fans, you need references. It's better to pay attention than to guess.
