Many people ask, the data is good, why did the market fall instead of rising?

Although the data is conducive to the expectation of rate cuts, the reduction in the rate cuts, coupled with the fact that the recent market reaction is contrary to the news, has led to this decline

After the release of the US CPI data, interest rate traders reduced their bets on the Fed's September meeting to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and are expected to cut interest rates by about 33 basis points, compared with yesterday's expectation of 37 basis points.

Some market participants are still disappointed with the US inflation data. Analyst Chris Anstey said that it is worth noting that the US CPI inflation rate in July has now fallen below 3%, the lowest level since inflation first ignited in the spring of 2021. The initial market volatility was not large. The US 2-year Treasury yield is currently up more than 4 basis points, showing that some people are disappointed that the inflation data has not become more silent.

Adam Button, an analyst at the financial website Forexlive, said that the market's pricing for the Fed's full-year rate cut has fallen from 106 basis points before the data was released to 103 basis points. This is a slightly hawkish reaction, indicating that the market has priced in more downside surprises. Nevertheless, the unrounded inflation number is better than the overall number. In other words, the probability of a rate cut has increased, but it has changed from 50 basis points to 25 basis points. The market has too high expectations for a rate cut. The greater the expectations, the greater the disappointment. #美国CPI数据连续第4个月回落 #新币挖矿TON #美国7月PPI低于预期