The much-anticipated live interview between Musk and Trump on the X platform began at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Like the last Bitcoin conference, Trump was "late" this time, but due to a technical failure. Musk said that X seemed to have been attacked by a large-scale DDOS network, and the content of the conversation would be released later.
The interview was promoted as a hot topic to help Trump revive his supporters. It is worth mentioning that Musk said that the interview was impromptu, without a script, and the content was not restricted by the subject.
In addition, after the opening of the U.S. stock market last night, the market quickly rose to the 60,700 line, but then fell back quickly after being under pressure in this area. At present, the market is in a narrow range of 58,000-60,000 in the short term. The current short position in the four-hour chart has declined, but the current indicators are very neutral, which also shows the weakness of long and short positions. This week's market indicators will continue to come:
It is important to note that the United States will announce important economic indicators such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) on August 13 and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on August 14.
More and more data and analysis indicate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. This week’s data will be a reference for expectations, so the release of the data will have an impact on the crypto market.
Trump and Musk's live broadcast: No mention of cryptocurrency
Before the live broadcast, many crypto enthusiasts had high expectations for them, and there were rumors that the two of them were going to discuss meme coins, etc. As a result, a total of about 160,000 meme coins were put online during this period. 1.32 million people listened. The subsequent total number of views reached 1 billion times.
As a result, there was no mention of virtual currency during the live broadcast. As a result, these memes have basically returned to zero. Due to suspected large-scale DDOS network attacks, the audience participation will be reduced. The live broadcast content mainly focuses on elections, inflation, manufacturing, electric vehicles, high-speed rail, education and other topics. Now can be said to be the honeymoon period for Musk and Trump.
Personally, I think it was correct not to mention cryptocurrency in the live broadcast. The most important thing now is whether Trump can win the presidential election. The crypto market is secondary. Let’s do the main thing first. After winning the election, it will be natural to release information in this field.
Macroeconomic data will be released this week
The PPI at 20:30 tonight, the CPI at 20:30 tomorrow night, the retail data the day after tomorrow and the number of initial unemployment claims for the week will be released one after another. In fact, after the classification, PPI and CPI belong to the category of inflation, and the latter is an indicator of the strength of the economy.
If we talk about the relationship between the three, PPI data reflects the changes in producer prices, which are usually transmitted to consumer prices and affect CPI. As for the impact of CPI and Bitcoin, in theory, when CPI increases sharply, it may indicate that inflationary pressure is increasing, and investors may regard digital currencies such as Bitcoin as safe-haven assets, thereby driving up the price of Bitcoin.
The release of the two data will have a certain expected impact on the interest rate cut. As the interest rate cut starts in the later stage, liquidity will be restored and the price fluctuation range in the oscillation range will decrease. Once the long-term volatility decreases, there will be a signal that a bull market has started.
Therefore, the PPI data will be released first tonight, and the crypto market will experience certain fluctuations.
Can this week’s data drive a bull run back in the crypto market?
PPI, CPI and retail data will be released this week, and more and more data and analysis indicate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, which is undoubtedly a positive scenario for cryptocurrencies and memecoins.
Let’s talk about CPI first. For example, the linkage between the US CPI and BTC during the period of sharp increase at the end of 2020
If the CPI data is stable, other data can be used as reference data with less impact on the market. If the data shows large fluctuations and surprises, other data may aggravate the impact of CPI abnormalities.
The market is forward-looking, and investors rush to buy before the interest rate cut, which may cause the crypto market to start surging ahead of schedule in August.
From the perspective of the bull market cycle, the bull market appeared 165 days after the halving. Now it has been more than 110 days. Perhaps within two months, we will see the most expensive bitcoin in history. This time point is in line with market expectations!
Therefore, based on historical rules, a comprehensive interest rate cut will not directly trigger a bull market in the stock market and major asset classes, and the related impacts have often been priced in long ago.
