Price forecast
Short-term forecast: Corrective movement is expected to continue with a possible decline to the support level of $6.24. At the same time, a rebound to the level of $7.5 is possible in case of positive momentum.
Medium-term forecast: Growth in the range of $8.24 - $9.8 is possible if the price consolidates above $7.5 over the next 3-6 months.
Support and resistance levels
Support: $6.24, $5.30
Resistance: $7.50, $8.24
Entry, exit, stop loss points for 🟢long positions
Entry point: $6.90
Exit point: $7.50
Stoploss: $6.24
Entry, exit, stop loss points for 🛑short positions
Entry point: $7.50
Exit point: $6.24
Stoploss: $8.00
🟢Long and 🛑short scenarios with probability assessment
🟢Long script:
Probability: 60%
Reasons: Support at $6.90, increased activity on the Anchored Volume Profile around this level, RSI showing signs of a possible reversal from the oversold zone, and an increase in active addresses and TVL over the last 30 days.
🛑Short scenario:
Probability: 40%
Reasons: Possibility of a rollback from the $7.50 level provided that volumes continue to decline, and also provided that net deposits increase and exchange reserves decrease over the last 7 days.
Technical indicators (influence on price)
Volume: Volumes remain high, which supports a possible upward price reversal and is favorable for 🟢longs.
Anchored Volume Profile: Support around $6.90 suggests a possible price recovery, which is favorable for 🟢longs.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is below the cloud, confirming the short-term bearish trend supporting the 🛑short.
Parabolic SAR: Supports the bearish trend, which is favorable for 🛑shorts.
EMA (50, 200): Price is below EMA 50 and 200, which also supports 🛑short.
YK Round Levels: Support levels are around $6.24, which supports a possible upward bounce.
RSI: At 45, indicating a possible reversal from the oversold zone, which supports 🟢long.
On-chain data (impact on price)
Exchange Reserve: Down 3% over the last 7 days and down 5% over the last 30 days, indicating a tightening of supply on exchanges and is positive for 🟢longs.
Net Deposits: A slight increase of 4% over the last 30 days, which may indicate possible selling pressure and is neutral.
Capital Inflows: Up 8% over the last 30 days, indicating increased investor interest and positive for 🟢longs.
Large Holder Inflows: A slight increase of 2% over the last 30 days, indicating growing large investor confidence and is positive for 🟢longs.
Active and New Addresses Growth: Up 6% over the last 30 days, indicating growing interest and activity on the network and is positive for 🟢long.
Trading Volume: Up 12% over the last 30 days, indicating increased interest and activity from traders and is positive for 🟢longs.
TVL Growth: Up 10% over the last 30 days, indicating growing confidence in ICP-based platforms and is positive for 🟢longs.
⚠️ General conclusion
Based on technical and on-chain analysis, it is recommended to consider 🟢long positions at the current price level. Key factors include support at $6.24, growth in active addresses and TVL, and improvement in trading volumes. 🛑Short positions are possible on a pullback from $7.50, but the probability of such a scenario is lower.
