522 days after the 16-year BTC mining output was halved, the Bitcoin RHODL indicator reached the peak of the bull market (December 14, 2017, the coin price was $16.7k, non-K-line bull top);

533 days after the 20-year BTC mining output was halved, the Bitcoin RHODL indicator reached the peak of the bull market (October 26, 2021, the coin price was $62.7k, non-K-line bull top);

Currently, 114 days have passed since the 24-year BTC mining output was halved.

The indicator in the figure is Bitcoin RHODL (Realized HODL Ratio), which is the ratio of the number of BTC on the chain that has not moved for less than 1 week to the number of BTC that has not moved for 1-2 years (the number of BTC in different age groups needs to be weighted according to the total market value of the purchase cost of all BTC in their age groups).

The red line is the 13-17 years period of the indicator; the blue line is the 17-21 years period of the indicator; and the black line is the 21 years to date period of the indicator. The three lines align the halving days of BTC mining output in their respective cycles.