The weekly line closed with a barely positive sign. The plunge on Monday last week and the rapid rebound during the week left almost no trace on the weekly closing price, and the two long needles corresponded to the liquidation of nearly $1 billion long positions and $400 million short positions respectively;
This proves the saying again: "A bull market is not just about more opportunities to make money, but the risks are not reduced at all!"
Let’s get back to the topic. The closing of this weekly line is actually very interesting!
Before 3 a.m., the price was still in the previous range of fluctuations. At 3 a.m., there was a sudden selling pressure from the spot level, which pushed the price down to around 58,500, completing the closing of the daily and weekly lines.
This rhythm is familiar with the situation last Monday. First, a long lower shadow Yang line was closed at the 4h level. Then, starting from 4 a.m., a large amount of spot selling pressure appeared and continued to sell until the opening of the U.S. stock market, forming an accelerated decline that began last Monday morning.
Although the specific reasons are still unknown, Coinbase does bear a lot of responsibility. The indicators I monitored for the price difference between CB and BN futures show that a lot of spot goods were indeed sold from CB.
This wave of small correction is mentioned here. From a technical point of view, the daily line is still in a descending expanding wedge, and it completed a violent retracement to the lower edge and a pullback test to the middle track last week. At present, there has been a certain correction;
According to the common trend of the expanding wedge, the price will be repeatedly tested on the upper and lower edges, and the fluctuation will become larger and larger, until one side is not strong enough to suppress or rebound the price, and a new trend will come;
Before a trending market comes, the price often gets support or resistance at the middle track, so the current price behavior seems to be more favorable for shorts;
However, looking back at this round of high-range fluctuations, in fact, the case of the middle track pulling back and then breaking through has actually happened twice, so I personally think that there is no more than three times the chance, that is, the bulls still have one chance to test the middle track (61000);
If this is successful, the price will continue to move toward the upper edge of the wedge. If it fails, the price may not be able to stand on the middle track for a long time and eventually run on the lower edge of the wedge.
The structural form can sometimes be unreliable. Let’s take a look at the status of the ASR-VC indicator. Below is the 4h level ASR dynamic channel;
It can be seen that the price made two precise tests of the middle track of the channel last week and at the weekend. Only after the failure of the breakthrough did today's slight correction occur. This is somewhat similar to the market in early July. After the failure of the test of the middle track, the price will first step back to the cyan line for short-term support, which is basically in place now.
In July, the German government's selling pressure caused the price to fall further. However, the current market does not seem to have any special potential negative factors. Unless the yen surges and the US stock market plummets, the blue line will be enough to serve as support for a period of time.
Since the 4h level has turned into a bearish trend, I will only consider short-term longs and try long-term shorts before the ASR trend is judged to turn back to longs;
The previous indicator has been in a bullish trend for 288 days. I think this turn to the short side is still worthy of respect, so I always hold the 65,000 short contract grid order on weekends;
The original plan was to take profit after the price broke through 63,000, but the market did not deny this transaction. It just made two false breakthroughs of 62,000 and started to pull back. Therefore, I added to this order after the price fell below the small range.
I wonder if those friends who have short positions at high levels have closed their positions or taken profits in advance?
The performance of the quantitative strategy is not ideal. The trend short position of 67,000 was closed at 51,000 by my intervention without authorization, but I still suffered losses when I went short again later. I chased the long position again over the weekend and stopped the loss this morning. At the same time, the band strategy currently has full long positions and is ready to stop loss at any time;
I personally expect the price to fluctuate in the range below 60,000 for a month, so that when the 50,000-60,000 range is broken, it will be easier to make decisions, rather than the desperate decline and continued rise of the last week.
In summary, the current market is actually better than last week. At least a small range was formed over the weekend and a breakout occurred. The short-term market is again in favor of the bears. Before the large wedge is broken or broken, the volatility will only get higher and higher.
The trend of the increase or decrease of more than 30,000 US dollars that I expect is really not far away. In this market background, light positions follow the trend in one direction and increase positions in stages after the trend is formed, which may bring unexpected results;
Everyone keeps saying they don’t want to have a big picture, but I think it’s almost time for them to have a big picture.
Again, I cannot predict the market, all analysis is based on one step at a time, the real market is "it may rise, it may fall, and it is not ruled out that it may go sideways!"
People who lose money are making predictions in self-satisfaction all day long, while people who make money are busy formulating countermeasures.
