[Coin Circle Outlook] Second bottoming warning: Turnaround may appear within a week

On August 7, 2024, the stabilization of the US stock market injected confidence into the rebound of the B circle, but the sharp fluctuations of the US stock market during the day revealed the withdrawal of funds and the rise of short-selling forces. Buffett's substantial reduction of holdings, especially the halving of Apple's shares, and the record high cash reserves, highlighting his cautious attitude towards the market.

At present, the risks in the B circle are controllable, ETFs such as BlackRock continue to flow in, and big cake buying can be expected. After several months of wide fluctuations, the valuations of most altcoins have become attractive, and the opportunity to hold positions has emerged. However, the potential plunge in the US stock market has become the biggest uncertainty. The Nikkei movement in the past few days has shown signs, and the larger-scale turmoil in the US stock market may affect the B circle and give rise to a new low.

However, this situation does not change the expectation of the bull market next year, but may accelerate quantitative easing and increase the certainty and height of the bull market. Strategically, it is recommended to reserve 20% to 30% of funds to deal with potential black swans. I personally have adjusted my positions to retain some band gains while maintaining confidence in the long-term bull market.

The current price contains rich profit potential. Excluding inferior assets, the overall target is expected to achieve 3-5 times of appreciation. Choosing the right target and holding firmly is the key. In the short term, if the sideways trend is stable, it may avoid a second bottoming out and directly enter the upward channel. Investors need to weigh the risks and benefits and decide whether to wait patiently. Usually, the second retracement window is about one week, and then the probability of upward movement increases.

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