Kamala Harris Presidential Odds Tie With Trump’s on Polymarket
1. 📊 **Tied Odds**: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied at 49% on Polymarket for the next White House occupant.
2. 💰 **Big Pool**: The betting pool is the largest on the site, with over $541 million at stake.
3. 📢 **Running Mate**: Harris announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, surprising Polymarket users who favored Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
4. 📈 **Rising Odds**: Harris’ odds have risen since Biden dropped out on July 21, increasing from 30% to 49%, while Trump’s odds dropped from 64%.
5. 🗳️ **Campaigning**: Both Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance are campaigning in Michigan.
6. 🔍 **Market Sentiment**: Polymarket is seen as a meaningful source for probabilities and market sentiment, with a strong crypto user base.
7. 🚀 **Reacting to News**: The platform quickly reacts to news, such as Trump’s assassination attempt.
8. 📉 **Prediction Miss**: Harris’ choice of Walz over Shapiro shows prediction markets can be wrong.
9. 📊 **Nate Silver**: Statistician Nate Silver joined as an advisor, boosting Polymarket’s credibility.
10. 📈 **Traffic Surge**: Polymarket saw record trading volumes in July and early August due to the chaotic political landscape, with $387 million in July and $130 million in early August.
