August 7, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The continuous stabilization of the US stock market has given the B circle the confidence to rebound. However, objectively speaking, the fact that the US stock market can plummet by several points in a single day shows that there is money selling, and it is obvious that there are also short sellers helping. In addition, we also noticed that Buffett also reduced his holdings of a large number of stocks, including Apple, which was sold half, and had a large amount of cash on hand. Although it is not new for the old man to hold a large amount of cash, this time the cash holding is higher than before, indicating that he is still quite cautious about the US stock market.
In fact, in the current market, I am not worried about the risks in the circle itself. After all, with the support of ETFs such as BlackRock, the new buying of Bitcoin is foreseeable. Moreover, since the "wide fluctuation" in March and April, the decline of most altcoins has been relatively sufficient, and the cost-effectiveness of many targets has reached the range where they can be held. However, what worries me most now is the plunge in US stocks. A few days ago, there was a black swan in the Nikkei, which had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency circle. Once a bigger plunge occurs in the US stock market, there will definitely be lower prices.
However, this logic does not affect the judgment of the big bull market next year. On the contrary, if a black swan crash occurs, the intensity of quantitative easing will be more intense, and the certainty and high point of the bull market will be higher. The question now is, we have to think clearly: should we use part of the funds to wait for this possible black swan? My own strategy is to use 20% to 30% of the funds to wait. This time, I used up to 80% of the funds for bottom-fishing. After the rebound in the past two days, I reduced it a little bit, and first took the 10-point swing.
What is certain is that the current price actually has a large profit margin for the bull market. Excluding some cottages that cannot rise, the overall potential profit is 3-5 times. Therefore, on the premise of choosing the right target, you still have to have the confidence to hold firmly. In the short-term market, although I have reduced my position, if this sideways position can be stabilized, I think it may be a sideways fall, without a second retracement. It depends on whether you are willing to take the risk and wait. Generally speaking, the second retracement will occur within a week, and the probability of continued rise will be greater the later it is.
Welcome to follow my BN Square account. #MarketDownturn
