On Wednesday (August 7), Bitcoin blew the horn of counterattack and broke through $57,000 in the short term. US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris confirmed that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will be her campaign partner. Harris and other US Democrats will hold a meeting with crypto industry professionals on Thursday evening. Senior traders said that Bitcoin seems to be repeating the bull market cycle of 2015-17.

Forbes reporter Eleanor Terrett posted an update on Twitter that a meeting between crypto industry professionals and Democratic leaders including U.S. Vice President Harris, hosted by California Congressman Ro Khanna, will be held at 11:45 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, or 23:45 Beijing Time on Thursday.

Harris and Waltz each confirmed their new identities as running mates on social media, and the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) said Waltz has not yet spoken publicly about cryptocurrency, but during his tenure as governor, Minnesota enacted legislation to strengthen regulation of cryptocurrency kiosks.

According to CoinTelegraph, Tim Walz's stance on cryptocurrencies is closely aligned with that of U.S. Democratic Senator Warren, who advocates stricter regulation of cryptocurrencies. Walz has never spoken publicly about cryptocurrencies, and his tenure in the House of Representatives predates major bills in the industry, so it is difficult to judge what position he might take on digital assets.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said Bitcoin’s downward trend since the Bitcoin Halving in April 2024 is beginning to resemble the market action before the 2016 bull run. He compared the depth of the market correction since the halving date and noticed the similarities.

In 2016, the Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9, with the price at $650 on that day. The market retreated to the subsequent low of $474 during the cycle, falling 27% within a month after the halving, before surging to a cycle high of $20,000 in December 2017.

Likewise, Bitcoin fell below $50,000 earlier this week and is currently down 26% from its post-halving price of $64,962.

However, Brandt also warned investors that he forwarded his April 26 article, pointing out that Bitcoin may have peaked in the current cycle. He emphasized that Bitcoin is experiencing exponential decay and has lost "80% of the exponential energy of each successful bull market cycle." This is obvious from Bitcoin's performance in the past four cycles.

This suggests that Bitcoin will experience an exponential increase of about 4.5x, which is 80% of the low to high return multiple during the 2018-2021 cycle.

“The current cycle low was $15,473 and the projected high for this cycle was $72,723, and guess what, that price has already been reached,” Brandt wrote. However, he noted that if Bitcoin has already topped out in the current cycle, a move back down to around $30,000 would be “the most optimistic thing” that could happen to Bitcoin in the long term.

Another analyst, htltimor, retweeted Brandt's analysis, expressing a similar view.

Bearish sentiment remains strong, with some analysts warning that Bitcoin prices could fall further.

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin fell by double digits to $49,221, according to Coingecko. Since hitting $70,000 in late July, Bitcoin has fallen 20%, but has shown signs of recovery and reclaimed $56,000 in early Asian trading on August 6.

ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen said the pattern is similar to that of 2019, when the market soared in the first half of the year before a sharp correction in the second half.

Tim Kravchunovsky, founder and CEO of decentralized telecommunications network Chirp, commented that crypto assets could recover much faster than other risk assets, just as they did in 2020. He said the massive sell-off was not a problem specific to cryptocurrencies, as “macroeconomic factors played a leading role.”

“In the coming hours and days, we may well see cryptocurrencies decouple from traditional stocks, much like we have seen in 2020.”

He added: “Back then, cryptocurrencies recovered much faster and more dramatically from the pandemic-induced crash than traditional stock markets, and we are likely to see something similar this time around.”

Bitcoin Technical Analysis

FXStreet analyst Michael Ebiekutan said that according to CryptoQuant data, as the bull-bear market cycle indicator has been

Bitcoin is now starting to show bearish signs as it enters bear market territory for the first time since 2019. Previously, the indicator entered bear market territory during the COVID-19 market sell-off in March 2020, the Chinese mining ban in May 2021, and the FTX exchange crash in November 2022.

The Profit and Loss Index and its 365-day moving average are falling rapidly, which further confirms the bearish signs. When the index falls below the moving average, Bitcoin will enter a bear market, and vice versa. Currently, the Profit and Loss Index has broken through the moving average, indicating that signs of a bear market have emerged. "If the bearish trend continues for more than two weeks, market recovery may be challenging," noted Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.

Meanwhile, according to IntoTheBlock data, whales holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoins increased their holdings during Monday’s market crash. According to Glassnode data, these purchases may have come from long-term holders (>155 days), as they noted that their buying activity reached its highest level since 2024 after the market fell.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September as poor non-farm payrolls data has raised fears of a recession. A rate cut is positive for Bitcoin as it encourages people to invest in stocks and commodities rather than government bonds. Therefore, such a move could help Bitcoin rebound and sustain its bull run.