I just came back from aerobics, and I want to talk about the issue that everyone is concerned about right now: whether the Federal Reserve will have an emergency meeting tonight!

Just before I went to the gym, I thought the source of the news was incorrect and it might be fake news. But at the same time, Ni Da @Phyrex_Ni also said that he got the news that there was a meeting, but it was not a meeting to directly cut interest rates.

Now I see that many people have tagged me and said that the meeting news might be fake. I also need to be objective and am looking for the source of the news.

Let me talk about the possibility of an emergency rate cut at tonight's meeting. I don't think the Federal Reserve will have an emergency meeting tonight to announce a rate cut. There may be a meeting, but there will not be a rate cut. The reasons are as follows.

1. Dear careful friends, I said last week that the expected economic downturn brought about by Friday's employment data may gradually decline this week. Of course, negative emotions will continue to ferment. What is most needed at this time is for Federal Reserve officials or Powell to come out to maintain stability. Powell has no plans to speak this week. I feel that an emergency meeting to stabilize the employment market and financial market is more likely, but the possibility of an emergency rate cut is smaller.

2. We can think that the United States is bad, but we cannot think that the United States is bad. Similarly, as for the U.S. economy, I am bearish on it in the long run, but in the short term it is still the world's number one economy, especially in the fields of finance and financial derivatives. It is the uncrowned king, and there is nothing we can do about it.

Although the U.S. economy has been in a high-risk state, it is not so fragile that a single month of declining employment data, coupled with other expectations of an economic recession, can force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates urgently. This would underestimate the capriciousness of the U.S. economy and the ability of the Federal Reserve.

3. Even if there is an emergency rate cut, it is just a last-ditch effort. It will not bring much effect, but will increase the expectation of economic recession. It is a very simple logic. If you are not worried about the economic collapse, why do you cut interest rates urgently? On the contrary, if there is no emergency rate cut, there is still room for growth for the US economy. At most, we can just play with the data.

4. Regarding the Japanese economic problem, the Japanese stock market crashed, the circuit breaker, and directly brought down the global stock market. I mentioned this in my earlier articles, so I won’t go over the old ones. I wanted to write about the topic of economic confrontation for a while, but I didn’t dare to write about it because it was too sensitive. The Japanese economy is included in this. In a nutshell, whether the Asian economy is in chaos or not, the Japanese economy accounts for half. Friends who like to study economics should have heard this sentence.

Therefore, Japan's economy being forced or voluntarily destroyed may be the last resort for the United States to deal with the economic confrontation, because it will soon face an interest rate cut, which means admitting defeat and seeking peace.

At the same time, as for Japan’s economic problems, even if they explode, it is not that bad. As mentioned before, Japan’s overseas assets account for more than twice of its domestic GDP. Japan can abandon its domestic interests in exchange for overseas support, you know.

I will briefly answer the above questions here. I will participate in Space tonight. If there is enough time, I will talk about the content here in detail. Please stay tuned!

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