According to PANews, analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may be compelled to cut interest rates before its next meeting in September to prevent a feedback loop between the market and the real economy that could trigger a recession. The current situation is heavily influenced by market dynamics. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, followed by weaker-than-expected economic data from the United States, has led to a significant global imbalance. In such times, seemingly impossible events can rapidly become possible.

The pace of economic deterioration has not suddenly accelerated—last week's employment data is not a definitive sign of recession, and the triggering of the 'Sam Rule' has merely shifted attention. However, when these factors emerge, they create opportunities for these positions to become reality, especially amid escalating geopolitical tensions. While today's economy may not differ significantly from last week's, the market's shift towards pricing in a recession increases the likelihood of it occurring. The Federal Reserve may now be forced to cut rates within this month to prevent asset price declines from impacting the real economy and triggering a recession.