August 5, 2024 Grandpa checks in
The black swan has finally arrived! Unexpectedly, this black swan happened in Japan. The Nikkei index fell 12% in a single day. The root cause of the decline was the US dollar. After the Federal Reserve gave the node expectation of interest rate cuts, the US dollar plummeted and the yen soared, which eventually led to the collapse of the Japanese stock market. After all, Japan is still one of the top economies. In line with the trend of the Nikkei, major stock markets such as South Korea have fallen to varying degrees. The most fatal thing is that the US stock index futures have triggered a downward circuit breaker, and the Nasdaq futures fell 5.2%. Tonight is destined to be a bloody night.
As a gathering place for risk targets, Circle B was inevitably affected. Bitcoin plummeted directly from the support of around 60,000 USD to 49,000 USD. The price of Bitcoin broke 5 USD for the first time after rising to 70,000 USD. Ethereum was even worse, hitting the lowest point of 2,100 USD and falling below 1,000 USD in a few days. The daily decline exceeded 20%. Although the lowest point was caused by a series of liquidations, this wave of decline was comparable to the previous "312" market, and it was a difficult day for the circle members.
What the market is most worried about now is that the US stock market will further plunge, which will drive the B circle to fall further. However, the Federal Reserve seems to be holding an emergency meeting to discuss the collapse of the Japanese stock market. In addition, the Federal Reserve does not want to continue the high interest rate policy and eventually shoot itself in the foot. I think the possibility of a further plunge is much smaller. Of course, generally speaking, the trend of this kind of plunge is impossible to reverse. Next, I expect it will take up to 3-6 months for the overall repair, unless the US stock market can go against the trend and reach a new high, which is very unlikely.
In the short-term market, continue to implement the bottom-fishing strategy. I bottomed out at 2800-3000 of Ethereum. After it fell below the support today, I continued to buy at 2300. As a configuration, I also bought some altcoins. For the selection of altcoins, it is recommended to focus on low market capitalization, and the overall proportion should not exceed 50%. As for mainstream targets, you can also choose BTC, BNB or SOL. Finally, I want to say that even if today is a dark day, for an old leeks, it is not the first time to see such a storm. Every time there is a plunge of more than 20% in a single day, the price hit is basically the bottom. This time I continue to use timing actions to verify my judgment.
The bull market will eventually come back, all it takes is time!
