BTC falls below 56,000, what new information causes panic in the crypto market?

5 reasons assessed: macro, jump selling, ETF flows, Kamala leads Trump in polls, Middle East, supply

1. Friday's macro signal is a clear short-term sell signal. The 10-year Treasury fell 40 basis points, oil prices plummeted, and the stock market continued to fall. VIX surged +25% on Friday. But in the long term, VIX has a trend of falling back, the Fed will cut interest rates in September, and it is still an election year!

2. Jump selling; perhaps buying put options before selling, more than 90% of ETH sales are sold on exchanges. Of the $550 million in the wallet, $510 million is now in stablecoins. Interestingly, they transferred stablecoins back to the wallet instead of trading on the exchange!

3. ETF flows,: No advantage, at the mercy of these flows all year long. BTC net outflows on Friday were -237 million, and ETH flows were neutral. New ETFs are killing the crypto market in the short term, but are a necessary evil in the long term.

4. Kamala is ahead of Trump in the polls, which is bad for the crypto market, even if the Democrats were less evil about crypto, the entire stock market and crypto market are leaning towards a Trump win.

5. Middle East tensions, doubt this is meaningful long term, it never is. Only macro traders on a 3 day time frame will trade this stuff. Plus oil doesn't take this trade seriously.

6. Supply: Mt Gox allocation is basically complete. But Genesis is now distributing ETH, BTC, and SOL in physical form. Grayscale sell-off seems to have weakened. FTX cash distribution is coming soon.