In today's market, the "rule" of a four-year cycle has failed.

First, altcoins have been falling. Even if Bitcoin rises to 100,000 in the future, most projects will issue coins only for shipment. VC coins and other tokens with low circulation and high FDV will be unlocked from March, and the period of large-scale shipments is approaching, and it is difficult to determine whether the bull or bear market will be strong.

Second, meme coins are beginning to cool down. Now it has become a pure volume, the shouting order harvesting system has failed, the evaluation system is meaningless, "value investment" is not optimistic, and it is difficult for bankers to pull the market.

Third, the public chain has become a ghost town. Although there are many infrastructure projects, there are few new funds and users, which is a serious problem. There are also disputes about the head public chains. There is no problem when it rises, but the problem becomes prominent after the leeks get on board.

Fourth, there is no new capital entering. The total amount of stablecoins is the same as two years ago, the market value of altcoins has halved, funds are concentrated in Bitcoin, and the FOMO on altcoins does not move.