(1/2) Global attention: At 2 a.m. Beijing time on August 1 (Thursday), the Fed's "trailer" of rate cuts will be released soon.
In the past six interest rate weeks, bulls have maintained "all wins", and the bitcoin currency may rise again tonight.
With the non-farm data coming one after another on Friday, the currency market may stage a super roller coaster this week. This is an opportunity, but also a trap. 🈴 It is a hard truth to control positions.
1. The Fed's July interest rate decision may foreshadow the start of a rate cut cycle, and the currency market may rise again.
1. At 2 a.m. Beijing time on August 1 (Thursday), the Fed will announce its July interest rate decision; 2:30 Powell speaks at a press conference.
A well-known journalist known as the "New Fed News Agency" wrote on Monday that although Fed officials are unlikely to adjust interest rates this week, the Fed has held four meetings this year, and each meeting has considered rate cuts as a matter for future consideration. At this meeting, the development of inflation and the labor market should signal to officials that there is a high probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in September.
2. The U.S. Treasury yield curve has experienced a significant "steepening" process in recent weeks: the decline in short-term U.S. Treasury yields is greater than that in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which is also a typical precursor to the Fed's upcoming interest rate cut cycle.
The market generally expects that Fed Chairman Powell is likely to hint at tonight's meeting that a policy easing cycle is about to begin.
The interest rate futures market has also priced in a total of about 68 basis points of interest rate cuts from September this year, and it is expected that the Fed will have about three 25 basis point interest rate cuts before June 2025.
3. Although risk markets usually maintain gains after rising after previous interest rate meetings, the non-farm report will be released this Friday, which often triggers large market fluctuations. In the case of a weaker-than-expected non-farm payrolls report, further gains will be maintained, otherwise a roller coaster market may be staged.
