I've collected opinions from top influencers to answer these questions
BTC crash, U.S. sales, Bitcoin's super cycle and more
Full analysis + $BTC forecasts 👇🧵
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On the evening of July 29, 2024, Bitcoin briefly broke through the $70,000 level
However, it soon entered a correction phase, dropping more than 6%, resulting in a price plunge to $66,000
To begin, let’s discuss how Bitcoin managed to reach the $70,000 mark
Ryan Lee, the chief analyst at Bitget Research, identified three primary reasons for this milestone:
1. Donald Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 crypto conference
2. Expectations of stock market growth and the Federal Reserve’s potential move towards lowering the key interest rate
3. Increased investor interest in high-risk assets, such as cryptocurrencies
Why BTC couldn't hold at $70,000
The primary reason was news that the U.S. government began moving its BTC to different wallets
Many believe the U.S. might start selling its Bitcoin
If this happens, it would create market pressure similar to what occurred with Germany
The total value of all BTC owned by the U.S. is estimated at $12 billion
However, recent transactions involved only $2 billion
Interestingly, during the crypto conference, Trump promised not to sell government-owned Bitcoins
It’s worth noting that the threat is very real
In Germany's case, the market reacted more to the news about potential sales than the actual sales themselves
However, the U.S. holds an amount four times larger, nearly 1% of the total supply
Will $BTC Resume its Growth?
Many in the crypto community believe that news of potential Bitcoin sales by the U.S. government is the last hurdle for BTC's growth
Here are $BTC forecasts from influencers 👇
Charles Edwards, the founder of the investment fund "Capriole Fund," outlined a comprehensive list of positive factors driving the growth of BTC
Tweet:
DrProfitCrypto
believes that Bitcoin's next target could be the $86,000 level
According to him, $BTC is on the verge of entering a cycle that will trigger significant growth
Tweet:
StockmoneyL
is also confident in Bitcoin's growth
He even wrote an excellent thread listing 10 reasons for Bitcoin's rise
I highly recommend reading it:
2. ETF Game - Part 1
Bitcoin ETF inflows are robust, and their long-term impact on $BTC is being underestimated at this point. With over $1 billion in inflows this month, ETFs provide a strong, ongoing demand that isn't fading anytime soon. This is game changing and the full demand is not there yet.
2. ETF Game - Part 2
At the #Bitcoin2024 in Nashville, Blackrock said the big money hasn’t arrived yet, “they haven’t turned it on yet, they are expediting the process”👀
2. ETF Game - Part 3
And other ETF crypto assets will also drive further adoption and pave the wave #Bitcoin and the bull run.
3. US elections in November
The likelyhood, that Trump will win is not to bad and his re-election will heavily push the markets including crypto. He is pro-crypto and Trump is speaking at the #Bitcoin2024 in Nashville.
4. Growing confidence of a Fed rate cut in September
Current US data give confidence that inflation is heading to 2% and a ‘soft landing’ should be possible. And the market is already anticipating those rate cuts
5. Stock-to-Flow
credits to
@100trillionUSD ♥️
The S2F model predicts Bitcoin's price by calculating the stock-to-flow ratio, which divides the current stock of Bitcoin by the annual flow. This might be the most cited and referenced price prediction for #Bitcoin. Similarly, the price prediction for the current cycle is very high (roughly over $300k in 2025), but it remains valid until proven otherwise.
6. The Global Liquidity Cycle
The cut rates in the US not only influence the available money pool but also affect other countries, such as China and the European Union. According to the extrapolated data, the Global Liquidity Cycle should next peak around September 2025, following its December 2022 trough. This fits PERFECT for the the anticipated #Bitcoin peak.
7. Bitcoin cylce repeat
(1) - All time high
(2) - Correction and Bear market rally
(3) - Bear market
(4) - Bear market bottom
(5) - Uptrend and consolidation
(8) - New All time high
These time zones are based on the Fibonacci sequence, a mathematical series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, ...).
In trading, Fibonacci time zones are created by segmenting the vertical price movement (from a notable low to a notable high) into several equal parts using Fibonacci ratios. Commonly used ratios include 1, 1.618, 2.618, 4.236, and others. Each ratio represents a distinct time zone.
8. Crypto Adoption
Perhaps the strongest argument for the current cylce. So far, the real use case for crypto for the masses is missing. But no one other than
@elonmusk
might bring the first crypto-based payment system with this app
@X💸
9. #Bitcoin network
The Bitcoin network has now processed $110 trillion in transaction volume in its lifetime. The Lightning network is high-performance and ready for the future. source: http://blockstream.com
10. Technical analysis
You cannot predict the future by looking in the rear-view mirror? Yes we can. Use our Stockmoney formula🦎
y = 923.49 x^2 - 4×10^6 x + 4×10^9k
Similarly, this model is different from the S2F model (reason 5), but both fit into the narrative of a parabolic bull run.
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