Analyst: 3 major catalysts will push Bitcoin to new highs

This week, Bitcoin regained $70,000, but then quickly fell to around $66,000. Events such as the U.S. government’s transfer of Bitcoin and the Federal Reserve’s FOMC interest rate decision are bringing more uncertainty to the market.

However, Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor and a well-known analyst, predicts that the price of Bitcoin may soon hit a new high, with three major catalysts that will drive the rise, and the so-called Macro Summer (Marco Summer) is coming.

Catalyst 1: Improving macroeconomic conditions

Pal noted that Bitcoin prices will break out and hit new highs against the backdrop of an improving macroeconomic environment. From the perspective of technical analysis, Bitcoin breaks out of the "giant cup and handle pattern" and enters the "banana zone", which means that the market will usher in a period of significant surge.

"The macro summer will start to take control and should last until at least the end of 2024 and possibly 2025," he said.

Pal also predicted that the Nasdaq Index may see a healthy correction, and that some investors will turn to alternative assets such as Bitcoin during traditional market corrections to diversify their positions, spread risks, and offset the potential decline in the stock market. loss.

He believes that Bitcoin is currently regarded as a safe-haven asset similar to gold, which can trigger investor demand for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies during times of uncertainty in the market, and rise during the correction of the Nasdaq Index. .

Source: X/Raoul Pal

Catalyst 2: U.S. presidential election

Pal noted that the quadrennial U.S. presidential election could be another catalyst that pushes Bitcoin to new highs.

Governments typically introduce economic stimulus measures ahead of elections to boost the economy and improve sentiment, and capital inflows can benefit traditional and alternative assets. Judging from historical trends, the US S&P Index usually performs well in election years.

Source: X/Raoul Pal
How the US S&P Index performed in an election year

Still, investors must be aware that each year and election cycle can bring unique circumstances that may affect market performance in different ways.

Catalyst 3: The dollar may continue to weaken

Pal also predicted that the U.S. dollar is likely to continue to weaken, which should help further ease financial conditions. A weaker U.S. dollar could raise concerns about rising inflation, and Bitcoin is often seen as a hedge against inflation. Investors may turn to alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin to protect their wealth from inflation.

Source: X/Raoul Pal
US dollar index trend

Driven by these three major catalysts, Pal predicts that Bitcoin and gold will reach new peaks in 2024 and beyond:

“The confluence of these catalysts may take more time to materialize, or it may happen with the FOMC. Who knows? But better days are coming, enjoy the macro summer!”

[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. Analysts' opinions are for reference only. Users should refer to more diverse indicators to judge whether to invest and consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.