After Trump made an impassioned speech at the Bitcoin conference, saying that he would not sell Bitcoin if he entered the White House, Deng arranged to transfer 298 million Bitcoins overnight, with a total value of about 2 billion US dollars. One of the two transfers, 10,000 Bitcoins, was transferred to the address of an encryption service agency, and the market fell briefly.
Objectively, I think this Bitcoin will not be sold directly. Selling it now will certainly slap Trump in the face, but it will not increase the value of Democratic votes. On the contrary, it may further encourage Trump's speculation that Bitcoin reserves will be used as a national strategy. And from the perspective of asset management logic, similar transfers have occurred in the past, otherwise Bitcoin would not have fallen so much.
From a macro perspective, yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of 124 million US dollars, and BlackRock alone had a net inflow of 205 million US dollars. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of 98 million US dollars, and Grayscale ETHE had a net outflow of 210 million US dollars. Bitcoin data is basically stable and improving, and Ethereum's net outflow has begun to slow down slightly, thanks to the increase in buying from other institutions. The selling of Grayscale ETFE continues to be fierce. It is expected that the fundamentals of Ethereum will not change much in the short term.
Yesterday's view on the market was quite clear. The upward pressure range was 69,000 to 72,000 points. This hurdle was really hard to overcome. After briefly touching 70,000 US dollars, it directly adjusted back by 4,000 points. Regardless of whether the US government transfers the big cake or not, from a technical point of view, I believe that there is no volume to support the big cake to reach a new high in the short term. If the market continues to fluctuate widely, it is still recommended to reduce positions appropriately in the upper pressure range.
The most important thing this week is the interest rate decision at 2 a.m. on Thursday. Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference shortly afterwards. It is expected that the market will fluctuate sharply in the short term. Judging from the current data from relevant institutions, the interest rate will remain basically unchanged this time, and the probability of the first interest rate cut in September is 100%.
And if the US non-farm payrolls data on Friday can meet market expectations, it will promote the positive sentiment of the risk market in advance. As time goes by, the door to interest rate cuts has finally been slowly opened. The present is confusing, but the future must be certain.
The world is simple and peaceful, and time passes slowly. We don’t need to pursue those uncertain waves too much, nor do we need to deliberately dwell on the regrets of those losses. In the turbulent world of web3, peace and tranquility will bloom with the wave after wave of new highs of the pie.
BTC: The market of Bitcoin was relatively clear yesterday. The upper pressure range can be shipped. The intraday correction range is 4,000 points. It has not yet reached the 63,000-point support range in the short term. The trend is fluctuating at a high level in the short term. In the medium and long term, the bullish trend remains unchanged, that is, even if the market has a short correction, the medium-term outlook is still upward. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the low absorption near the support point. The amplitude range is 63,000 to 72,000 points. If there is another round of bottom testing, it is expected to be the last time of the year.
ETH: A lot has been said about Ethereum. With the trend linked to it and the recovery of macro buying and selling data, it is optimistic in the long run.
Shanzhai: Sol and related series have become the conspicuous packages recently. In the short term, Sol is expected to reach a new high. It is not recommended to take it at this position. The JTO of Solana concept is linked to strength, and the pressure level is around 3.5 points. Those who have paid attention in the early stage should pay attention to reducing their positions. The upper trend pressure level of BOME is around 0.0125 points, and there is still about 25% space. The daily pressure trend level of Doge has been broken, and it is optimistic in the long term. Shanzhai season has not come yet. Sats, Ordi, ENS and SSV have lagged behind recently, and they are optimistic in the medium and long term. Shanzhai has not linked to callback during the day. Most Shanzhai are bottoming on the right side. The old Defi projects are currently showing signs of strength, which can be regarded as a signal before the next stage of the general rise in the market.
The Fear and Greed Index was 67 during the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美国政府转移BTC #美联储何时降息？ #比特币大会 $BTC
