Accurate market forecast
Yesterday, I mentioned in the article that the current rising market is a continuation of Trump’s positive sentiment at the Bitcoin Conference over the weekend. After Bitcoin hits the 70,000 mark, it will trigger a round of selling pressure. The market is in line with expectations and has begun to pull back!
Change of hands is needed at high levels to help a new push higher. Secondly, the RSI index is already around 70, and it will touch overbought sentiment around 70,000. A short-term correction in sentiment is a good thing.
BTC's on-chain activity on Monday increased significantly compared to the weekend. It seems that the power of Trump's speech has not decreased after a weekend, but has increased significantly. This also caused the price of BTC to temporarily increase to US$70,000 before the opening of the U.S. stock market. However, it gradually fell back after the opening of the U.S. stock market, indicating that the market is gradually digesting the content of Trump's speech.
This week, the market's focus returned to the macro level
Wednesday's small non-farm payrolls, Thursday's early morning interest rate meeting, and Friday's unemployment rate are all the focus of this week.
Let’s talk about the interest rate meeting first. It is almost impossible to adjust the interest rate at the July meeting. Even the market does not expect a rate cut. Therefore, the key point is whether Powell will mention the expectation of a possible rate cut in September during the Q&A session.
At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will start its first interest rate cut in September. Even some Federal Reserve officials thought so when they were interviewed. Therefore, the probability of a rate cut in September given by CME is close to 90%. If the rate cut starts in September, there is a high probability that there will be no unexpected events. In this case, the rate cut in September will be a defensive one, which is good for the market.
Hold on to your chips and don't get washed out
1. Trump's speech ignited the market enthusiasm, and the long positions of the contract continued to increase sharply. As a result, the main force once again made a false breakthrough last night to clean up the long contracts. After the cleaning, the contract positions decreased, and the funding rate was close to a negative rate
2. The parallel channel of these four months is effective. The first pullback after touching the top is normal, and the pullback target is around 65,300. Pay close attention to it, because the next time it will be a real breakthrough.
If the support of 65300 is effective, the short-term price will continue to fluctuate in the small range of 68000~65300;
If 65300 can be effectively supported, then we may have a weak rebound in the next two days to confirm whether the supply of 68000 is still strong. At that time, we may see a Lower-High and form a potential head and shoulders pattern;
Of course, if 68500 is strongly broken through again and stabilized, then the bulls can show off their power again!
Yesterday, Bitcoin hit the 70,000 mark and started to wash contracts, which is a bit like the situation of dawdling around the 10,000 mark many years ago. There is no way, with more and more retail investors and more financial instruments, the market will become more and more sluggish. We have no other way except to waste time.
The financial market is like a battlefield. Retail investors’ opponents are the market makers, who analyze the psychology and behavior of retail investors every day, but retail investors never analyze how the market makers think.
Sun Tzu's Art of War says, "Know yourself and know your enemy, and you can fight a hundred battles without danger." If you have never analyzed your opponent, how can you make money?
